Rachel's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.96
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Rachel bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
50%
60%
- Will New Zealand residential property prices fall more, or rise less, than the UK, USA, Germany, Austria, Australia, and Canada in the data released in 2023?NOṀ100
- 43. Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?NOṀ60
- 41. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023?NOṀ50
70%
- A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022YESṀ100
- 46. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023?NOṀ75
- Will I go swim in a lake on both remaining weekends in February?YESṀ50
80%
- Will Dr. P's question about Trump being president by Feb. 28, 2022 be resolved accurately?NOṀ80
- Code golf: Will someone post <=72 characters of Javascript code that I can use to resolve this market to YES, without fetching external code?NOṀ50
- Will my upcoming post "Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work" get more than 100 Substack likes?YESṀ37
90%
- 50. Will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos" in 2023?YESṀ100
- Will people be tired of the "will this market have $X invested by Y" spam before the ides of March?YESṀ50
- If we monetize by selling Mantic Dollars for real money, will it work well enough that we keep it for at least a couple months?YESṀ25
97%