Will Manifold crash during America's election night/morning?
Nov 6

If during the timespan of this event, 3 or more users post a screenshot within 10 minutes of each other (according to a clock presented in their screen captures) of some down detector website failing to ping Manifold.Markets or if I myself can do the same without any need for corroboration, this market resolves YES. This market can additionally resolve YES if a down detector website catalogs a crash during the timespan of this event and I can review the data. (Please comment a link to the detector site once Manifold recovers). If no crash is observed, this resolves NO.

The 36 hour time frame for this event is any EST time on the date of Nov 5, 2024 and up until noon the next day (Nov 6, 2024 11:59 AM EST).

I have posted a down detector website that will be accepted for this market. If you wish to vet another one, please comment a link below.


Another criteria to resolve YES will include an official Manifold account (higher than just a mod) commenting on this market or making a public statement (such as on Twitter/X) reporting a crash or outage. I will also interpret such a post saying that a crash 'may have occurred' or something to that effect to also resolve YES. I will use my best judgement to determine if they are referring to a crash during this market's event time frame.

Don't expect this market to resolve live for obvious reasons. Please post your time zone in your evidence so it can be converted to EST.

Edit 1: Spelling correction, and added NO criteria.

Edit 2: Added clause for official Manifold account to report an outage.

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@traders Added clause for YES resolution allowing an official Manifold account to report an outage. See description.

As a software dev, seems like an easy NO. This thing just isn't a high resource usage system. It's not like it's trying to serve real time video, or do some crazy-complex calculations with every transaction.

Further, the resolution criteria use a down detection website, which will just be testing that the site loads. That is, it won't detect trades getting slow, or failing to complete (the most likely form of service degredation, IMO).

On the other hand, the app regularly pops a brief message about needing to be connected to the Internet to use it. I'm guessing some API call returns a bit slow, and the message is displayed in the meantime. That's a bit concerning, not because of the slow, but because it suggests there's not a strong emphasis on degrading gracefully.

Interesting point. I would imagine that this gray area would cause some discontentment about this market's resolution criteria if pings work but trades don't.

Even so, I will try to keep things crystal clear and unambiguous. The ping test is the standard for this market. User experience is not the standard.

However, I will carve out the following exception and ratify it into the description unless somebody can give me a reasonable reason not to by EOD Sunday June 23, 2024.

If an official Manifold account (higher than just a moderator) comments on this market or makes a public statement (such as a Tweet/X post) that they deem a crash to have positively happened during the stated timeframe, that would be considered a valid YES criteria.



@Sinclair good confidence, ate up the rest of my limit. prove me wrong!

bought Ṁ250 YES

PSA this market gives an incentive for someone to run a DDoS on that day.

very minor incentive (liquidity-wise) probably outweighed by real traffic and the incentive to newstrade

but it's a fair point. the classic "is this assassination market worth the insight it provides?"

Yeah but buying a $1 booter subscription for a day is a lot easier than hiring a hit. I do agree the low liquidity makes it less likely.

Interesting point. But at this moment, unless I'm running my numbers wrong, I think outright buying $10 or $20 of Mana far exceeds how much mana you'd get by maxing out YES and spending the resources to crash the site... in that order.

If this happens anyways, I would imagine this would provide a pretty strong tip as to who may have caused it or is in the know. Probably not worth the extra attention.

Someone told me they have seriously discussing it with one of founders and they are building a massive infrastructure for supporting the traffic. They told me servers are based not in US, so very much open for manipulations, but I am confident in it all!

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