Quinn The Elder's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -19.61
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Quinn The Elder bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- When the ones digit of the date next matches the ones digit of the Dow Jones close, will that digit be even?YESṀ100
- Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will anyone be injured/killed in the protests?NOṀ100
- Will Trump accuse Juan Merchan, the New York judge handling his case, of being unfair/biased/corrupt again?YESṀ100