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Quinn Dougherty's calibration

Interpretation
  • The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Quinn Dougherty bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
  • Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
  • The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
  • Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
20%
  • Will I (Aella) find someone new to seriously date by the end of 2022?NO‌Ṁ53
  • Will I (Aella) find someone new to seriously date by the end of 2022?NO‌Ṁ30
  • Will Tether (USDT) be "unpegged" in 2022?NO‌Ṁ5
50%
  • Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2022?NO‌Ṁ15
  • A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022YES‌Ṁ10
60%
  • Will Austin Chen get a girlfriend at any point in 2022?YES‌Ṁ50
70%
  • Will researchers discover the purpose of Raspberry Robin by 2022-08-17?YES‌Ṁ10
80%
  • Will Marginal Revolution link to Manifold Markets in 2022?YES‌Ṁ15
90%
  • Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows buying and selling in Markets by July 1st, 2022?YES‌Ṁ100
  • Will at least 10 of my markets get at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$?YES‌Ṁ100
95%
  • Will Lightcone purchase the Rose Garden Inn?YES‌Ṁ125
99%
  • Will at least 25 different people comment on this question by June 1, 2022?YES‌Ṁ100
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