Context: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/170

This is a change we've been considering for quite a while. The biggest reason not to do it, IMO, is that our UI made an implicit promise that your trades would be anonymized when it said "A trader bought..." instead of "Eva bought..." 

I think this UI was a bad idea, in retrospect, because the bettor identity wasn't truly private -- it's possible to derive their identity through the API or through a web scraper. But it's a really tricky technical problem to keep the identity private; and note that public/pseudonymous cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin/Ethereum are much much more widely used than private ones like Zcash/Monero.

But this is the world we live in now, where we need to balance respecting the implied promises in our UI against what functionality would be good for the continued growth of Manifold. I'm leaning towards an opt-out period (basically, starting now) where we do an account deletion/reset for anyone who prefers privacy; and then afterwards, all trades (both historically and moving forward) will have the trader identity attached.

But I'm open to other proposals as well, and open to changing my mind!

May 10, 1:44pm: FWIW, I'd be looking to submit this change within this week, but I put the market resolution date a bit later in case we find strong reasons not to do so.

If you're not sure what to comment about then share your favourite memory from when you were a child.

Or if that's too deep then just say your favourite food...

Parimutuel markets that end so close to the resolution suck for traders, so I made this one.

Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

May 19, 7:17pm: See the >1000 USD market here: https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-1000-usd-be-donated-through-ma

Resolution using the number at the top of this page: https://manifold.markets/charity

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8992/us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022/

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

Science

Metaculus

Technology

Internet

Musk Mania

Twitter

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 11:59:59 PM CT, Joseph James Rogan (aka "Joe Rogan"), host of the "Joe Rogan Experience" on Spotify, invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- "Georgism", "Geoism", or "Land Value Tax" -- in a favorable context.
#JoeRogan
#Georgism
#Economics
#Podcast

Politics

Georgism

Economics

This market resolves to YES if, at some point on or before 1/1/23, the identity of the person who leaked the draft SCOTUS abortion decision is known with high confidence. For example, if a major news source confidently the identity as fact, or if the leaker admits it, or if the Supreme Court takes action against someone. I will roughly base my decision on whether I think there's an 80%+ chance the named person is responsible.

Law & Order

SCOTUS

Taking advantage of Manifold markets resolving by fiat to experiment with a market where I resolve based on my own research and subjective judgement at the end.

The context here is I tried to find good concrete measures of whether there's been a food shortage but ultimately failed to find things that seem sufficiently tied to the true latent idea. For example, I considered asking "Will the supermarket closest to my apartment not have bread when I go in at any time in the next three months?" but it seems too stringent and also depends on how often I go into the supermarket. 

Instead, in three months I'm just going to resolve based on a combination of reading around to understand whether food shortages were perceived to occur and my own sense. To make this slightly less arbitrary, I'll do my best to comment updating the market as I read or see things that update my view. If I can't come to a firm resolution, I'll resolve to a probability that reflects my best guess.

May 17, 7:33am: Note that I *will not* be betting in this market.

Decided to make another.

The >2000 USD market is here:
https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-2000-usd-be-donated-through-ma

May 19, 7:17pm: Resolution using the number at the top of this page: https://manifold.markets/charity

From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022

Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.

Please Resolve

Quinn Dougherty

If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2022, then this market will resolve YES. We don't have to have a 40% or higher estimate at the end of 2022 for this market to resolve YES, it just needs to happen at any point before the end of 2022.

Dating

Sex and love

Tether (USDT) is a so-called "stablecoin", i.e., a cryptocurrency which is (supposed to be) backed by actual currency so that its value is pegged to the US Dollar. Tether has long been suspected to not actually hold the reserves necessary to back all existing USDT. A bounty of $1 million [1] for anyone who provides information on Tether's backing has so far bot been claimed. On the other hand, Tether is very useful for trading cryptocurrencies, and many in the business probably do not care about whether it is actually backed, as long as it serves its purpose.
This market resolves YES if the value of one USDT is less than 0.9 US Dollars for more than one (consecutive) week of the year 2022 (as reported by [2]).

[1] https://hindenburgresearch.com/tether/
[2] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

Crypto Prices

Stablecoins

Special Prosecutor Jack Smith

Presidential Politics

MAGA-land

US Politics

Olivia

This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.

Predictions on Predictions

Manifold

This market resolves to "Yes" if at any point before the end of the year, my brother @Austin and a woman both consider themselves to be dating each other.

https://www.lifewire.com/mysterious-new-windows-malware-continues-to-vex-researchers-5271614

> Cybersecurity researchers from Red Canary recently discovered a new worm-like malware they’ve dubbed Raspberry Robin, which spreads via infected USB drives. While they’ve been able to observe and study the working of the malware, they haven’t yet been able to figure out its ultimate purpose.

Small print: I won't trade in this market.

The link must appear in a blog post on https://marginalrevolution.com/ before the end of 2022.

The API must be publicly available, official, and documented to count towards a positive resolution.

Resolves to YES if by time of close there are at least 10 markets that I created that have at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$ from users who are not me. Those markets do not have to be still open at time of close - markets that close before that point still count, if they have >=10 bids of >=10 M$.

May 20, 8:38am: note: it must be at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$ EACH (i.e. at least 100 M$ in volume), not at least 10 M$ total over all bids

Quinn Dougherty's calibration