Context: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/170

This is a change we've been considering for quite a while. The biggest reason not to do it, IMO, is that our UI made an implicit promise that your trades would be anonymized when it said "A trader bought..." instead of "Eva bought..." 

I think this UI was a bad idea, in retrospect, because the bettor identity wasn't truly private -- it's possible to derive their identity through the API or through a web scraper. But it's a really tricky technical problem to keep the identity private; and note that public/pseudonymous cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin/Ethereum are much much more widely used than private ones like Zcash/Monero.

But this is the world we live in now, where we need to balance respecting the implied promises in our UI against what functionality would be good for the continued growth of Manifold. I'm leaning towards an opt-out period (basically, starting now) where we do an account deletion/reset for anyone who prefers privacy; and then afterwards, all trades (both historically and moving forward) will have the trader identity attached.

But I'm open to other proposals as well, and open to changing my mind!

May 10, 1:44pm: FWIW, I'd be looking to submit this change within this week, but I put the market resolution date a bit later in case we find strong reasons not to do so.

If you're not sure what to comment about then share your favourite memory from when you were a child.

Or if that's too deep then just say your favourite food...

Parimutuel markets that end so close to the resolution suck for traders, so I made this one.

Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

May 19, 7:17pm: See the >1000 USD market here: https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-1000-usd-be-donated-through-ma

Resolution using the number at the top of this page: https://manifold.markets/charity

Manifest karaoke komp

Manifest

🔮 Manifest

🌶️ Spicyfest

🪩 Manifest Friday Karaoke Komp

🎤 Karaoke

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8992/us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022/

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

Science

Metaculus

Spicyfest

Technology

Internet

Musk Mania

Twitter

Elon musk

Sam Altman

🖥️ Technology

🤖 AI

OpenAI Crisis

🇺🇸 US Politics

🟠 Trump

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

MAGA-land

Republican Party

Debate

2024 Republican Primaries

🗳️ Politics

Scandal Markets

US Politics

FTX Insolvency Crisis

New Year's Resolutions 2024

SBF Trial

Sam Bankman-Fried Trial Length

Taking advantage of Manifold markets resolving by fiat to experiment with a market where I resolve based on my own research and subjective judgement at the end.

The context here is I tried to find good concrete measures of whether there's been a food shortage but ultimately failed to find things that seem sufficiently tied to the true latent idea. For example, I considered asking "Will the supermarket closest to my apartment not have bread when I go in at any time in the next three months?" but it seems too stringent and also depends on how often I go into the supermarket. 

Instead, in three months I'm just going to resolve based on a combination of reading around to understand whether food shortages were perceived to occur and my own sense. To make this slightly less arbitrary, I'll do my best to comment updating the market as I read or see things that update my view. If I can't come to a firm resolution, I'll resolve to a probability that reflects my best guess.

May 17, 7:33am: Note that I *will not* be betting in this market.

Economics

Sex and love

Relationships 

Dating

Personal

Decided to make another.

The >2000 USD market is here:
https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-2000-usd-be-donated-through-ma

May 19, 7:17pm: Resolution using the number at the top of this page: https://manifold.markets/charity

From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022

Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.

Please Resolve

Quinn Dougherty

If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2022, then this market will resolve YES. We don't have to have a 40% or higher estimate at the end of 2022 for this market to resolve YES, it just needs to happen at any point before the end of 2022.

Tether (USDT) is a so-called "stablecoin", i.e., a cryptocurrency which is (supposed to be) backed by actual currency so that its value is pegged to the US Dollar. Tether has long been suspected to not actually hold the reserves necessary to back all existing USDT. A bounty of $1 million [1] for anyone who provides information on Tether's backing has so far bot been claimed. On the other hand, Tether is very useful for trading cryptocurrencies, and many in the business probably do not care about whether it is actually backed, as long as it serves its purpose.
This market resolves YES if the value of one USDT is less than 0.9 US Dollars for more than one (consecutive) week of the year 2022 (as reported by [2]).

[1] https://hindenburgresearch.com/tether/
[2] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

Crypto Prices

Stablecoins

Love

Unsubsidized

🎲 Unranked

AI Safety

Special Prosecutor Jack Smith

Presidential Politics

Politics

Law & Order

Olivia

This market resolves to "Yes" if at any point before the end of the year, my brother @Austin and a woman both consider themselves to be dating each other.

Trial of the Century

Georgia

https://www.lifewire.com/mysterious-new-windows-malware-continues-to-vex-researchers-5271614

> Cybersecurity researchers from Red Canary recently discovered a new worm-like malware they’ve dubbed Raspberry Robin, which spreads via infected USB drives. While they’ve been able to observe and study the working of the malware, they haven’t yet been able to figure out its ultimate purpose.

Small print: I won't trade in this market.

If I have sex with anyone on this list and really enjoy it, I will resolve the market to that person's name unless they request otherwise. If they want privacy, then it'll be N/A.
If I don't have sex with anyone, will N/A.

PLEASE input a recognizeable name, if you're like "John" i'm gonna throw up my hands and not resolve to John if I do sleep with a John.

If concerned about privacy, feel free to use a private/code contact twitter or email as the name.

I am quite freaky and enjoy sexually terrifying men, ideally ones with experience. I have difficulty enjoying vanilla sex, and even if the man is quite sweet and good and all the ladies love him, if he's vanilla then I don't expect to resolve the market to his name.

For the purposes of this market, I am straight.

If you want more specific, private info for insider trading, you can email not_that_pretty@protonmail.com, my partner, though he's pretty busy in the next few days and might not have time to respond. I request you don't publicly share any details about my sexuality that you learn from him.

If I've had sex with someone before, they don't count. Tho to my knowledge I'm not in danger of having sex with someone I've already had sex with before at Manifest.

also guys jfc i really encourage novel names i havent considered before ok

Which Manifest attendee would I enjoy having a one-night stand with the most?

NSFW

Aella

FTX Liquidity Crunch (Nov 2022)

Crime

Cryptocurrency

The API must be publicly available, official, and documented to count towards a positive resolution.

Resolves to YES if by time of close there are at least 10 markets that I created that have at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$ from users who are not me. Those markets do not have to be still open at time of close - markets that close before that point still count, if they have >=10 bids of >=10 M$.

May 20, 8:38am: note: it must be at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$ EACH (i.e. at least 100 M$ in volume), not at least 10 M$ total over all bids

SF Bay Rationalists

Kalshi

ManiFest

Quinn Dougherty's calibration