Would Joe Biden's campaign experience a dramatic decrease in donations following his debate performance?
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Currently resolves if Joe Biden is unable to raise half as much as Donald Trump within July. I am willing to change the resolution criteria if there is a better way to do it.

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Thinking about resolving N/A due to the clarity of campaign ownership following Biden's dropped out. If there is objections, I'm willing to consider

Probably close the market for trading while you consider. I think this is a clear YES, myself.

I think the big question is if you are counting donations after it changed to Harris' campaign. Biden did experience a dramatic shortfall in donations, but donations skyrocketed after Harris became the nominee.

At which point they weren't donations to his campaign, they were donations to her campaign.

If he drops out in July then any future donations would be to the replacement candidate, not Biden.

bought แน€50 YES from 36% to 39%

The campaign fund ("committee") referred to as "Biden for President" is now called "Harris for President" and still receiving donations. The underlying entity hasn't changed.

The only good source I found for these numbers is the mandatory monthly reports, but those don't include other funding sources like superPAC donations, and will count Biden/Harris together. The FEC bulk receipts data omits small contributions, so summing the total of receipts from July 1st until when when Biden dropped out for the "Biden for President" committee wouldn't work.

Seems like unless the campaign or a journalist (by means of insider sources) discloses the information publicly, the resolution may be indeterminate under the interpretation you suggest.

So far rumors have it Biden's campaign only raised 25% of expectation this month. Resisting betting on this market

bought แน€50 YES from 39% to 41%
bought แน€50 YES from 41% to 44%

A lot of these donations were already in effect but were scheduled to be completed+filed after the debate in order to drive headline momentum, which is why I am measuring the whole month of July to try and norm out manipulation.