Similar markets with arbitrage opportunities:

https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/was-the-crowdstrike-global-outage-c
https://manifold.markets/Symmetry/what-is-the-reason-for-the-global-i

Major difference is that this market will resolve much later. I am giving 5 1/2 years for various credible investigation agencies to determine fault.

Can this resolve to "no" early if investigations determine it was an accident? Otherwise the market will be pretty biased towards "yes".

I'll admit the structure of this market makes it harder to prove that something didn't happen; I'll resolve NO if there are no longer any active major investigations ongoing, and there has not been any evidence that this was done intentionally. This would exclude investigation do not outright state whether they are active/inactive.

Right now as IT workers are scrambling to fix this mess up, it's a great opportunity for a hacker to plug a USB where they shouldn't

Timing is interesting (night of Trump's nomination). I have my bulletin board and yarn locked and loaded.