On March 1st, 2024, I will flip a coin (or just use @FairlyRandom) to choose between the two linked markets, heads/1 will be the original market and tails/not 1 will be the negation of the original. This market then resolves identically to the chosen market.
However, if this market is chosen as the "Most Entertaining Question" then in order to ensure a self-consistent solution one of the following resolution criteria will be used:
If the chosen market is the "How will the most entertaining question resolve?" market, then another coin will be flipped and this market will resolve to the result of that flip (heads/1 YES, tails/not 1 NO)
If the chosen market is the negation of the "how will ... resolve" market market (not a typo lol) then this market will resolve YES immediately, then need to be un-resolved by a mod and re-resolved to NO, then the other market will need to be re-resolved to YES, and so on until someone gets tired or banned. Note that this market cannot resolve to 50% or N/A or else it would be ineligible for the "Most Entertaining Question".
I will not bet in this market.
If you "vote" for this question in the "How will the most entertaining question resolve?" market by liking my comment linking this question and leaving a comment of your own (not a reply to mine) suggesting and linking this market, I will give you 5 mana.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ8 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 |
@FairlyRandom The bot has spoken! This market will resolve to the negation of the "most entertaining question" market! The original market will now adopt the resolution criteria of this market, and perform it's own random selection. Then I will resolve this question to whatever the negation market resolves as:
I have realized that there is a loophole in my resolution criteria:
There is nothing explicitly preventing the negation market from resolving to a percentage or N/A. Thus the infinite reresolutions outcome I describe may be avoided. In this case, this market will resolve by the rules below:
In the case that this market is chosen as the "most entertaining question" AND the randomly selected market is the negation market AND (that market resolves to a percentage OR N/A) then:
If the negation market resolves to N/A, this market will resolve YES, as this was the original resolution when the negation market was chosen.
If the negation market resolves to a percentage then this market will resolve to YES if the percentage is strictly greater than 50% and NO if it is less than or equal to 50%.
Note that it is still impossible for this market to resolve to a percentage or N/A, and thus is still eligible to be the "most entertaining question."
If this update to the resolution criteria significantly changes anyone's position, please let me know and I will refund your initial investment.
@traders as per the extremely convoluted resolution criteria, randomly selecting the negation market causes this market to resolve YES immediately. I had put it off for a bit in the hopes that the linked markets would resolve first, but it seems that the original market has been forgotten about. So, this resolves YES until further notice, and may need to be re-resolved at a later date, as specified by the resolution criteria.
@FairlyRandom The bot has spoken! This market will resolve to the negation of the "most entertaining question" market! The original market will now adopt the resolution criteria of this market, and perform it's own random selection. Then I will resolve this question to whatever the negation market resolves as:
Not a valid request: Range is ambiguous. Please include only a single number, or explicitly state max=N
@traders this market was chosen as the most entertaining question! So as previously stated, I will use @FairlyRandom to generate a number between 1 and 2 inclusive with 1 meaning that this market will resolve to the original market's resolution, and otherwise it'll resolve to the negation market's resolution.
I have realized that there is a loophole in my resolution criteria:
There is nothing explicitly preventing the negation market from resolving to a percentage or N/A. Thus the infinite reresolutions outcome I describe may be avoided. In this case, this market will resolve by the rules below:
In the case that this market is chosen as the "most entertaining question" AND the randomly selected market is the negation market AND (that market resolves to a percentage OR N/A) then:
If the negation market resolves to N/A, this market will resolve YES, as this was the original resolution when the negation market was chosen.
If the negation market resolves to a percentage then this market will resolve to YES if the percentage is strictly greater than 50% and NO if it is less than or equal to 50%.
Note that it is still impossible for this market to resolve to a percentage or N/A, and thus is still eligible to be the "most entertaining question."
If this update to the resolution criteria significantly changes anyone's position, please let me know and I will refund your initial investment.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?