That is Friday March 15, 2024.
Will be resolved according to https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMND/
Lemonade is a fintech company that offers a range of insurance products, including homeowners, renters, pet, and life insurance, using artificial intelligence to enhance service efficiency. The company is expected to report its Q4 earnings on Tuesday, February 27.
This question is mostly about predicting the Q4 results and the subsequent reaction of the market. It could be influenced also by other factors such as the general market movements, or even by some catastrophic weather events (however that's unlikely in such a short time period).
The $21.50 price:
is about 20% upside from last Friday close of $17.90.
is above the current break-even price of March 15 CALL options with strike price of $20
would represent breaking of the current 3-year downtrend when looking at the stock price chart (technical analysis)
Creator policy: I will bet max Ṁ50 in total. (I'm mostly interested in opinions of others.)
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@Prin The market sold off well below the trend line yesterday. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
A brief earnings update:
The Q4 results were very good, esp. profitability -- adjusted EBITDA was much better then guided for.
The loss ratio of 77% was a huge improvement (12 pt. YoY), however I was expecting even better, perhaps 75% or less.
The main issue is relatively weak 2024 guidance. They expect to grow in-force premium (annualized insurance fees) about 26% by the end of the year. I was expecting much faster acceleration of the growth, closer to 35 or even 40%.
Another mild negative is their cautious communication about loss ratios in Q1 and Q2 (seasonality).
LMND is a small cap and therefore it's a playground of traders and short seller.