It's likely that there will be no official numbers, but we will get some firm constraints based on the combined "Other models" number, which currently includes S/X and Cybertruck. It's also possible that Tesla will change its disclosures.
I will resolve the question in one of three possible ways, in this priority:
Based on official Cybertruck deliveries, if Tesla decides to disclose them. I will wait until the 2025 Q4 earnings report for any hints.
Based on an estimate by Troy Teslike (https://x.com/TroyTeslike) after he updates it following the Q4 Production & Delivery report, or his prior estimates if he doesn't update it before the Q4 earnings report.
My best guess, if the above two options are not available. This estimate must be consistent with any public disclosure by Tesla, such as the combined "Other models" item. Also, in the very unlikely situation that Troy's numbers are not consistent with any official disclosure, I will adjust the number in the most straightforward way to ensure consistency.
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve immediately after Tesla's Q4 2025 Production & Delivery report is released. Resolution will wait until after the Q4 2025 earnings release on January 28, 2026.
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According to the resolution criteria, we should wait until the earnings release:
"Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026"
In the meanwhile, I'm interested in your estimates of the true number here in the comments (ideally with an explanation of how you got these numbers).