Prideful Famine's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Prideful Famine bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Destiny's side channel "Last Night On Destiny" have more monthly views than Vaush's main channel at the end of the November?YESṀ10
- Will Destiny's side channel "Last Night On Destiny" have more monthly views than Vaush's main channel at the end of the November?YESṀ10
- Will Destiny have a 15k viewer Kick stream by the end of AprilYESṀ10
95%
97%