Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow?
Resolved
NO
Jun 15
M$44,570 bet
Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close? Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). Bet amounts other than $10 and selling are not included in the final tally. Jun 15, 9:02am: Final tally YES (number of $10 bets yes / up arrow): 1503 NO (number of $10 bets no / down arrow): 1542

💬 Proven correct

IsaacKing
Isaac King sold M$354 of YES
@zoli I suspect we're not going to find out until this market is over.
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Isaac King made M$354!
GeorgeVii
George Vii is betting NO at 58%
Did anyone notice how the liquidity went negative? (when I withdrew the ~$M1500/$M2000 I put in to collect fees)
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GeorgeVii
George Vii is betting NO at 58%
I don't understand how that happens, anyone have an explaination? (you can see the liquidty now is $M74 which is less than inital $M100 free liq)
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ahalekelly
Adrian bought M$100 of YES
I'm getting 1503 YES, 1539 NO Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('bought M$10 of')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0});
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GeorgeVii
George Vii is betting NO at 58%
@AdrianKelly Holy Moly! Really! Thought I fumbled this one!
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BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic bought M$0 of NO
@AdrianKelly Nice!! Teamwork makes the dream work :P
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GeorgeVii
George Vii is betting NO at 58%
@BionicD0LPH1N 🤝 Pleasure doing business with you sir
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BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic is betting NO at 58%
@GeorgeVii 🤝 Pleasure doing business with you too! :)
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GeorgeVii
George Vii is betting NO at 58%
@AdrianKelly Lamo. I was "Ctrl F-ing" to see the numbers, but as soon as it went over 1000 I was in the dark as to how we were doing
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$100 of NO
There will be retribution for this. Mark my words.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen sold M$55 of NO
Looks like there's rate limiting on the API if you bet enough. Good news for the distributed, democratic forces of NO.
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GeorgeVii
George Vii bought M$10 of NO
@jfjurchen I got rate limited to hell if so. Not so good for NOs :((
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zoli
zoli is betting YES at 68%
wait so, the thing where you buy $10 of X, say ten times, and and then sell $100 of X. Is that zero bets or ten @Predictor
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IsaacKing
Isaac King sold M$354 of YES
@zoli I suspect we're not going to find out until this market is over.
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Predictor
Predictor is betting NO at 58%
@zoli For the sake of this market and future ones like this, it is not included. I would like to discourage selling, so from the bets tab, $10 yes or no is all that counts.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen bought M$10 of NO
Now at 1130 yes, 1054 no
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ahalekelly
Adrian is betting NO at 73%
How is this tab consuming 100% of a 4GHz CPU core
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IsaacKing
Isaac King is betting YES at 73%
@AdrianKelly Poor optimization for long webpages. I noticed this issue on Honourary's market a while back, looks like it hasn't been fixed yet.
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ahalekelly
Adrian sold M$22 of NO
Client Side Rendering was a mistake
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$10 of YES
Et tu, @Bionic?
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BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic bought M$10 of NO
@IsaacKing I'm willing to team up with George Vii on this one, sorry. But I expect that I have more shallow pockets than either of you, so I'm a bit scared!
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GeorgeVii
George Vii bought M$10 of NO
@BionicD0LPH1N Thanks for your support!
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting NO at 71%
With M$100 bugfix: Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('M$10 of')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0}); Currently gives 988 yes, 924 no.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting NO at 65%
This would miscount anyone who sold M$10 worth at a time (should be checking for "bought M$10 of" not just "M$10 of") but it doesn't look like anybody's done that.
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$10 of YES
@GeorgeVii We're currently doing nothing but cancelling out each other's actions, wasting money on fees that all go to @Predictor. I believe we could coordinate for a mutually beneficial outcome.
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GeorgeVii
George Vii bought M$10 of NO
@IsaacKing Not wholy true, but I'm listening
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$10 of YES
@GeorgeVii I'm not sure exactly how to acomplish what I want to acomplish, but maybe something like an agreement to not place any more bets for the next hour, unless someone else begins trying the same strategy?
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ahalekelly
Adrian is betting NO at 67%
A ceasefire only serves the side that's currently ahead
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$10 of YES
@AdrianKelly Yeah that's why this is awkward to actually coordinate. But we'd definitely both benefit from finding some way to agree to each skip our next 1000 bets.
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GeorgeVii
George Vii sold M$278 of NO
@IsaacKing Why dont we balance the books (to equal bets and 50% prob) then only bet in the last 15 mins?
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GeorgeVii
George Vii is betting NO at 65%
My internet is suffering too much :((
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$10 of YES
@GeorgeVii Looks like @Bionic is jumping in, so they'd need to agree too or else I'd end up at a big disadvantage.
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$10 of YES
I'm stuck in an airport for the next two hours, I got nothing to do but buy YES shares.
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BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic is betting YES at 74%
Can someone provide the number of YES and NO so far?
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BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic bought M$10 of NO
Ok, so my really unsure tallying techniques got 627 YES, and 502 NO so far.
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BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic is betting NO at 71%
(I just scrapped the html in a txt file and searched for the number of ',"outcome":"YES",'. If instead I search for '"outcome":"YES"' (and the same for NO), it gives 766 YES and 581 NO.)
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BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic is betting NO at 71%
Apparently this is totally wrong. Oops
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zoli
zoli is betting YES at 46%
Well that's certainly an interesting strategy. I suppose whether it is valid depends on the interpretation of "selling are not included in the final tally"
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$10 of YES
@Predictor can we get clarification as to whether sold shares are subtracted from the total? e.g. if someone buys M$10 YES, M$10 YES, and M$20 no, does that count as two points towards a resolution of YES or does the sold $M$20 cancel out the YES for an overall neutral effect?
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Predictor
Predictor is betting NO at 58%
@IsaacKing That would count as 2 x "YES" only
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zoli
zoli bought M$10 of YES
Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('$10')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0}); just sayin'
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting NO at 56%
@zoli Now paste the code that hits the "NO" button 63 times
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zoli
zoli is betting YES at 56%
@jfjurchen way I see it, there's an similar incentive to smash both NO and YES, but last-second NO smashing will undertake more risk since they have to drive the probability way down before reaching parity, so it's less likely to happen
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting NO at 56%
@zoli More risk, but also a better payout. Guess we'll see!
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zoli
zoli is betting YES at 50%
Looks like the non-$10 NOs are being reapportioned as $10 NOs. I should have anticipated this :D
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IsaacKing
Isaac King bought M$10 of YES
@zoli This counting code isn't quite right, it's currently off by 13 bets. I think it's counting purchases of M$100 as well.
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting NO at 60%
Expect someone will come in at the last minute and smash the button. Betting towards 50% because if it's 60% YES at the last minute they'll make more money pushing it to NO than YES, and vice versa.
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