Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow?

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resolved Jun 15

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Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close? Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). Bet amounts other than $10 and selling are not included in the final tally. Jun 15, 9:02am: Final tally YES (number of $10 bets yes / up arrow): 1503 NO (number of $10 bets no / down arrow): 1542

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🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	GeorgeVii	Ṁ4,216
2	J. F. Jurchen	Ṁ2,713
3	Predictor 🔥	Ṁ900
4	Bionic	Ṁ406
5	Adrian	Ṁ226

32 Comments

21 Positions

3.2K Trades

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GeorgeViipredicted NO

Did anyone notice how the liquidity went negative? (when I withdrew the ~$M1500/$M2000 I put in to collect fees)

GeorgeViipredicted NO

I don't understand how that happens, anyone have an explaination? (you can see the liquidty now is $M74 which is less than inital $M100 free liq)

Adrianbought Ṁ100 of YES

I'm getting 1503 YES, 1539 NO Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('bought M$10 of')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0});

GeorgeViipredicted NO

@AdrianKelly Holy Moly! Really! Thought I fumbled this one!

Henri Lemoinebought Ṁ0 of NO

@AdrianKelly Nice!! Teamwork makes the dream work :P

GeorgeViipredicted NO

@BionicD0LPH1N 🤝 Pleasure doing business with you sir

Henri Lemoinepredicted NO

@GeorgeVii 🤝 Pleasure doing business with you too! :)

GeorgeViipredicted NO

@AdrianKelly Lamo. I was "Ctrl F-ing" to see the numbers, but as soon as it went over 1000 I was in the dark as to how we were doing

Isaac Kingbought Ṁ100 of NO

There will be retribution for this. Mark my words.

J. F. Jurchensold Ṁ55 of NO

Looks like there's rate limiting on the API if you bet enough. Good news for the distributed, democratic forces of NO.

GeorgeViibought Ṁ10 of NO

@jfjurchen I got rate limited to hell if so. Not so good for NOs :((

keripredicted YES

wait so, the thing where you buy $10 of X, say ten times, and and then sell $100 of X. Is that zero bets or ten @Predictor

Isaac Kingsold Ṁ354 of YES

@zoli I suspect we're not going to find out until this market is over.

Predictor 🔥predicted NO

@zoli For the sake of this market and future ones like this, it is not included. I would like to discourage selling, so from the bets tab, $10 yes or no is all that counts.

Isaac Kingpredicted YES

@Predictor If anything that incentivized selling, since it meant people could use the same M$10 multiple times.

J. F. Jurchenbought Ṁ10 of NO

Now at 1130 yes, 1054 no

Adrianpredicted NO

How is this tab consuming 100% of a 4GHz CPU core

Isaac Kingpredicted YES

@AdrianKelly Poor optimization for long webpages. I noticed this issue on Honourary's market a while back, looks like it hasn't been fixed yet.

Adriansold Ṁ22 of NO

Client Side Rendering was a mistake

Isaac Kingbought Ṁ10 of YES

Et tu, @Bionic?

Henri Lemoinebought Ṁ10 of NO

@IsaacKing I'm willing to team up with George Vii on this one, sorry. But I expect that I have more shallow pockets than either of you, so I'm a bit scared!

GeorgeViibought Ṁ10 of NO

@BionicD0LPH1N Thanks for your support!

J. F. Jurchenpredicted NO

With M$100 bugfix: Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('M$10 of')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0}); Currently gives 988 yes, 924 no.

J. F. Jurchenpredicted NO

This would miscount anyone who sold M$10 worth at a time (should be checking for "bought M$10 of" not just "M$10 of") but it doesn't look like anybody's done that.

Isaac Kingbought Ṁ10 of YES

@GeorgeVii We're currently doing nothing but cancelling out each other's actions, wasting money on fees that all go to @Predictor. I believe we could coordinate for a mutually beneficial outcome.

GeorgeViibought Ṁ10 of NO

@IsaacKing Not wholy true, but I'm listening

Isaac Kingbought Ṁ10 of YES

@GeorgeVii I'm not sure exactly how to acomplish what I want to acomplish, but maybe something like an agreement to not place any more bets for the next hour, unless someone else begins trying the same strategy?

Adrianpredicted NO

A ceasefire only serves the side that's currently ahead

Isaac Kingbought Ṁ10 of YES

@AdrianKelly Yeah that's why this is awkward to actually coordinate. But we'd definitely both benefit from finding some way to agree to each skip our next 1000 bets.