Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow?
Resolved
NOWill the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close?
Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). Bet amounts other than $10 and selling are not included in the final tally.
Jun 15, 9:02am: Final tally
YES (number of $10 bets yes / up arrow): 1503
NO (number of $10 bets no / down arrow): 1542
💬 Proven correct
@zoli I suspect we're not going to find out until this market is over.
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Isaac King made M$354!
Did anyone notice how the liquidity went negative? (when I withdrew the ~$M1500/$M2000 I put in to collect fees)
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I don't understand how that happens, anyone have an explaination? (you can see the liquidty now is $M74 which is less than inital $M100 free liq)
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I'm getting 1503 YES, 1539 NO
Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('bought M$10 of')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0});
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@AdrianKelly Holy Moly! Really! Thought I fumbled this one!
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@AdrianKelly Lamo. I was "Ctrl F-ing" to see the numbers, but as soon as it went over 1000 I was in the dark as to how we were doing
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Looks like there's rate limiting on the API if you bet enough. Good news for the distributed, democratic forces of NO.
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@jfjurchen I got rate limited to hell if so. Not so good for NOs :((
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wait so, the thing where you buy $10 of X, say ten times, and and then sell $100 of X. Is that zero bets or ten @Predictor
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@zoli I suspect we're not going to find out until this market is over.
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@zoli For the sake of this market and future ones like this, it is not included. I would like to discourage selling, so from the bets tab, $10 yes or no is all that counts.
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@AdrianKelly Poor optimization for long webpages. I noticed this issue on Honourary's market a while back, looks like it hasn't been fixed yet.
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@IsaacKing I'm willing to team up with George Vii on this one, sorry. But I expect that I have more shallow pockets than either of you, so I'm a bit scared!
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With M$100 bugfix:
Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('M$10 of')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0});
Currently gives 988 yes, 924 no.
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This would miscount anyone who sold M$10 worth at a time (should be checking for "bought M$10 of" not just "M$10 of") but it doesn't look like anybody's done that.
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@GeorgeVii We're currently doing nothing but cancelling out each other's actions, wasting money on fees that all go to @Predictor. I believe we could coordinate for a mutually beneficial outcome.
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@GeorgeVii I'm not sure exactly how to acomplish what I want to acomplish, but maybe something like an agreement to not place any more bets for the next hour, unless someone else begins trying the same strategy?
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@AdrianKelly Yeah that's why this is awkward to actually coordinate. But we'd definitely both benefit from finding some way to agree to each skip our next 1000 bets.
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@IsaacKing Why dont we balance the books (to equal bets and 50% prob) then only bet in the last 15 mins?
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@GeorgeVii Looks like @Bionic is jumping in, so they'd need to agree too or else I'd end up at a big disadvantage.
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I'm stuck in an airport for the next two hours, I got nothing to do but buy YES shares.
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Ok, so my really unsure tallying techniques got 627 YES, and 502 NO so far.
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(I just scrapped the html in a txt file and searched for the number of ',"outcome":"YES",'. If instead I search for '"outcome":"YES"' (and the same for NO), it gives 766 YES and 581 NO.)
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Well that's certainly an interesting strategy. I suppose whether it is valid depends on the interpretation of "selling are not included in the final tally"
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@Predictor can we get clarification as to whether sold shares are subtracted from the total? e.g. if someone buys M$10 YES, M$10 YES, and M$20 no, does that count as two points towards a resolution of YES or does the sold $M$20 cancel out the YES for an overall neutral effect?
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Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('$10')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0});
just sayin'
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@zoli Now paste the code that hits the "NO" button 63 times
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@jfjurchen way I see it, there's an similar incentive to smash both NO and YES, but last-second NO smashing will undertake more risk since they have to drive the probability way down before reaching parity, so it's less likely to happen
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@zoli More risk, but also a better payout. Guess we'll see!
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Looks like the non-$10 NOs are being reapportioned as $10 NOs. I should have anticipated this :D
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@zoli This counting code isn't quite right, it's currently off by 13 bets. I think it's counting purchases of M$100 as well.
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Expect someone will come in at the last minute and smash the button. Betting towards 50% because if it's 60% YES at the last minute they'll make more money pushing it to NO than YES, and vice versa.
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