Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow?

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Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close? Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). Bet amounts other than $10 and selling are not included in the final tally. Jun 15, 9:02am: Final tally YES (number of $10 bets yes / up arrow): 1503 NO (number of $10 bets no / down arrow): 1542

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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3.00

32 Comments

21 Holders

3.2k Trades

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predictedNO

Did anyone notice how the liquidity went negative? (when I withdrew the ~$M1500/$M2000 I put in to collect fees)

predictedNO

I don't understand how that happens, anyone have an explaination? (you can see the liquidty now is $M74 which is less than inital $M100 free liq)

I'm getting 1503 YES, 1539 NO Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('bought M$10 of')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0});

predictedNO

@AdrianKelly Holy Moly! Really! Thought I fumbled this one!

@AdrianKelly Nice!! Teamwork makes the dream work :P

predictedNO

@BionicD0LPH1N 🤝 Pleasure doing business with you sir

predictedNO

@GeorgeVii 🤝 Pleasure doing business with you too! :)

predictedNO

@AdrianKelly Lamo. I was "Ctrl F-ing" to see the numbers, but as soon as it went over 1000 I was in the dark as to how we were doing

There will be retribution for this. Mark my words.

Looks like there's rate limiting on the API if you bet enough. Good news for the distributed, democratic forces of NO.

@jfjurchen I got rate limited to hell if so. Not so good for NOs :((

predictedYES

wait so, the thing where you buy $10 of X, say ten times, and and then sell $100 of X. Is that zero bets or ten @Predictor

@zoli I suspect we're not going to find out until this market is over.

predictedNO

@zoli For the sake of this market and future ones like this, it is not included. I would like to discourage selling, so from the bets tab, $10 yes or no is all that counts.

predictedYES

@Predictor If anything that incentivized selling, since it meant people could use the same M$10 multiple times.

Now at 1130 yes, 1054 no

predictedNO

How is this tab consuming 100% of a 4GHz CPU core

predictedYES

@AdrianKelly Poor optimization for long webpages. I noticed this issue on Honourary's market a while back, looks like it hasn't been fixed yet.

Client Side Rendering was a mistake

Et tu, @Bionic?

@IsaacKing I'm willing to team up with George Vii on this one, sorry. But I expect that I have more shallow pockets than either of you, so I'm a bit scared!

@BionicD0LPH1N Thanks for your support!

predictedNO

With M$100 bugfix: Array.from(document.querySelector('main .flow-root > div').children).map(child => child.innerText).filter(text => text.includes('M$10 of')).reduce((p,n) => {p[n.includes('YES')?'yes':'no'] += 1; return p},{yes:0,no:0}); Currently gives 988 yes, 924 no.

predictedNO

This would miscount anyone who sold M$10 worth at a time (should be checking for "bought M$10 of" not just "M$10 of") but it doesn't look like anybody's done that.

@GeorgeVii We're currently doing nothing but cancelling out each other's actions, wasting money on fees that all go to @Predictor. I believe we could coordinate for a mutually beneficial outcome.

@IsaacKing Not wholy true, but I'm listening

@GeorgeVii I'm not sure exactly how to acomplish what I want to acomplish, but maybe something like an agreement to not place any more bets for the next hour, unless someone else begins trying the same strategy?

predictedNO

A ceasefire only serves the side that's currently ahead

@AdrianKelly Yeah that's why this is awkward to actually coordinate. But we'd definitely both benefit from finding some way to agree to each skip our next 1000 bets.

@IsaacKing Why dont we balance the books (to equal bets and 50% prob) then only bet in the last 15 mins?

predictedNO

My internet is suffering too much :((

@GeorgeVii Looks like @Bionic is jumping in, so they'd need to agree too or else I'd end up at a big disadvantage.

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