This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' has a higher domestic opening weekend gross than Beyonce's concert tour movie (whatever the final name may be). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Will use box office mojo data, market resolves when all data is final - no studio estimates.
Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
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This past year, two great artists and businesswomen have been giving back-to-back concerts that have created a lot of expectation and uproar from the public. Taylor Swift's Eras Tour has amazed everyone with each sold out venue, the amount of merchandise surrounding the event and the overall expectation that it has risen. On the other hand, Beyonce's Renaissance tour has also been widely successful. So much so that two movies will be released: one for Taylor's tour and another one for Beyonce's.
However, in regards to which movie will have a better opening weekend, I believe that it will be Taylor's. This decision is based on the fact that her tour has been called "the greatest show on Earth" because of the social, economic, political and cultural effects it has had during this year (Gensler, 2023). In addition to the fact that, recently, Taylor took her tour out of the US and has begun to give concerts internationally (beginning with Latin America) and has announced more dates; which has lengthen her tour even further. (Goffe & Allen, 2023)
On the other hand, AMC theaters announced that the movie has already surpassed a "jaw-dropping" threshold last weekend. Which is why box office analysts say that the film could raise about $100 million on the opening weekend alone; estimating that it will be in theaters for longer than what is scheduled. (Neelakandan, 2023)
Whereas Beyonce's movie is expected to raise between $6 and $7 million. All while the pre-sales events indicate that the Eras tour movie has done better than the Reinassance one. (D'Alessandro, 2023)
References
D'Alessandro, A. (2023, October 3). Deadline. Deadline. https://deadline.com/2023/10/beyonce-renaissance-concert-film-presales-box-office-1235562887/
Gensler, A. (2023, August 17). The Showgoer: The Greatest Show On Earth — Taylor Swift's 'Eras Tour' — Is All That And Far. Pollstar News. https://news.pollstar.com/2023/08/17/the-showgoer-the-greatest-show-on-earth-taylor-swifts-eras-tour-is-all-that-and-far-more/
Goffe, N., & Allen, H. (2023, September 3). Taylor Swift’s “Eras” Tour vs. Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” Tour, in Charts. Slate Magazine. https://slate.com/culture/2023/09/taylor-swift-beyonce-eras-renaissance-tours-setlists-charts.html
Neelakandan, L. (2023, October 5). Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour concert film surpasses $100 million in ticket sales. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/05/taylor-swift-eras-tour-film-surpasses-100-million-in-ticket-sales.html
@LauraGarcia I agree that Taylor Swift's "Eras Tour" movie is likely to have a bigger opening weekend box office compared to Beyoncé's "Renaissance" movie, based on pre-sales and release data.
Specifically, Swift's movie has already sold over $100 million worth of advanced tickets, showing immense demand (Neelakandan, 2023). On the other hand, Beyoncé's film is projected to only have an opening of $6-7 million (D'Alessandro, 2023). Swift's movie is predicted to play in theaters for a long time due to the enormous hyped and cultural impact of her sold-out tour, which has been described as "the greatest show on earth" (Gensler, 2023). Beyoncé's Renaissance movie, on the other hand, is expected to have a more limited release.
Swift's 2023 tour dates around the world, as well as her devoted fans' continued support, also boost her film's prospects (Goffe & Allen, 2023). With Swift's movie already outselling Beyonce's by more than ten times, the data suggests that the opening weekend box office revenues will be higher.
Considering Swift's significant advantage in pre-release measurements of demand, I agree that her Eras Tour film will most likely generate higher earnings during its first weekend. The numbers indicate that her more considerable and stable momentum will result in more substantial initial returns than Beyonce's more moderate estimates.
If Taylor Swift's box office numbers are anything like what's being predicted then it's going to be an incredibly tough target to hit.
The highest box office figure I've been able to find for a music gig being shown in cinemas was Justin Bieber's 2010 release grossing $99 million worldwide but the market is predicting that Eras will make over five times that amount:
/SimonGrayson/will-taylor-swifts-eras-tour-gross
So Beyonce could be incredibly successful but still fall short of this absolute juggernaught!
@SimonGrayson A little bit of the racism here, but I may be understanding of you and your perspectives.
@SimonGrayson I knowing the dog whistle when I am hearing it. You know what you are saying, let us just leave it like this.