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Either Messi or Griezmann need one, and they both have 3 assists in 6 matches. So naively that's 1-0.5^2 = 0.75 that either of them gets another one. And both Argentina and France are attacking teams, so I don't see a big reason to adjust that downwards that much. 40% seems clearly too low.
@EliasSchmied I agree, but past top assisters will tend to regress to the mean, and it's harder to assist against a strong team. On the other hand, maybe France scoring and Argentina scoring are anticorrelated a bit, and other players add a few %.
@StevenK That's true. Also, now that I look at them, World cup finals maybe tend to be a little bit low-scoring? But overall I'm happy with having bet it to 55%
@EliasSchmied I'm beginning to worry that maybe @AlexLiesman knows something. There was a news report about French players getting sick, but I didn't see Griezmann on that list.
@EliasSchmied Low scoring world cup finals seems kind of hard to believe. If that were true, I'd expect low scores for any high stakes game between strong teams. And the possibility of extra time means more expected minutes of play than the average match. I haven't looked at numbers though.
Requires one from Messi or Griezmann, two from any of five other French and Croatian players, or three from various others. Not a given IMHO.
