PossumsRus's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.49
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when PossumsRus bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will the United Kingdom be the region with the highest google web search interest in "manifold markets" from January 9th-January 16th?YESṀ30
- Will at least 50 Manifold shirts be ordered by users within a month of them going live?YESṀ30
- By the end of January, will I be in the top 10 monthly creators on Manifold?NOṀ20
80%
90%
97%