Will the winner of Alaska in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state?

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resolved Nov 26

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Will the candidate that wins Alaska get more than 50% of the first place votes in Alaska? Alaska uses instant runoff voting, so this would resolve NO if the election goes to an instant runoff.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Election margins

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Republicans have gotten 52-55% of the presidential vote in Alaska for the last 3 elections in a row. This isn't impossible if they suddenly crash in the state but seems unlikely.

@ShakedKoplewitz Yeah, Trump actually won less of the vote in Alaska than he did in Ohio or Iowa, even though both of those states were closer than Alaska in terms of margins. I certainly don't expect it to be won by only a plurality, but with a big enough leftward shift or third party presence, it would be possible.

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