Will the root mean square probability of this market be greater than 1/√3?

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Ṁ18k

resolved May 2

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After this market closes, I will calculate the root-mean-square value of its probability (the power mean with power 2). I will use the exact probabilities, rather than the rounded ones, to do this. It will resolve YES if the value is greater than 1/√3 ≈ 0.57735, which is the RMS value of all numbers between 0 and 1, and therefore theoretically the "fair" value to use as the cutoff between a Team YES and Team NO victory (using 1/2 would give Team YES an advantage, since the RMS is larger than the straight average).

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predicted NO

The final RMS was 31.90%.

predicted NO

The current RMS is 33.5%. Team NO has already won, since Team YES would fall far short of the threshold even if the market stayed at 100% for the entire time remaining.

@JosephNoonan can you recalculate what Id need to maintain to flip?

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch 94.92%

predicted NO

The RMS is now 39.42%. Team YES would have to keep it above 81.58% to win.

predicted NO

Current RMS: 42.24%

Team YES needs the RMS for the remaining period to be at least 72.36% to win.

predicted NO

I'm calculating a current RMS of about 49.4%.

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