Will the popular vote margin be at least 5% in 2024?
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resolved Nov 16
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NO

Will the winner of the popular vote for U.S. president win by at least 5%?

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Election margins
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bought Ṁ2,000 NO

Yeah, no chance of this. It's down to 2.5% and almost all the votes left to be counted are in blue states.

bought Ṁ200 NO

Given that Trump only won the Rust Belt swing states by 1 or 2 points, there's no way the PV margin is going to be big. Trump+5 would mean the EC bias was more than 3 points in his favor.

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