After this market closes, I will calculate the time-weighted arithmetic mean of the log odds of the market, that is, of ln(p/(1-p)), where p is the market's probability. I will use the exact probabilities, not the rounded ones displayed by Manifold.

This is like "The Market", except that it puts higher weight on extreme probabilities, with the weight being proportional to how difficult it is to hold the market at that probability (in terms of the relative price of YES and NO shares). Therefore, it makes it "worth it" to hold the market at such extreme probabilities.