Oh whoops. Was gonna try to manipulate this one, but I got... busy.

@IsaacKing really? you seem inactive?

@IsaacKing How exactly were you planning to manipulate it?

Total log(YES) shares: 76.89

I didn't calculate the total log(NO) shares because it just took the first 11 NO holders to exceed that, with a log sum of 79.11. The total sum of log(NO) shares is much larger.

curl+jq script (and the current status):
> curl https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/9WizBWmiczVYPqDA6LTR/positions | jq '{yes: map(select(.maxSharesOutcome == "YES") | .totalShares.YES | log) | add, no: map(select(.maxSharesOutcome == "NO") | .totalShares.NO | log) | add}'
{

"yes": 65.90765240401448,

"no": 193.96296403660878

}

@Imuli Who wants to buy 4.11x10^55 YES shares to snipe this last minute?

@JosephNoonan On it.

@Imuli javascript/paste into console version:
let req = new XMLHttpRequest();

req.open("GET", "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/9WizBWmiczVYPqDA6LTR/positions", false);

req.send();

let resp = JSON.parse(req.response);

let count = sh => resp.filter(x => x.maxSharesOutcome === sh)

.reduce((total,x) => total + Math.log(x.totalShares[sh]), 0);

({ yes: count("YES"), no: count("NO") })

@JosephNoonan who wants to make "does IsaacKing have a trick up his sleeve on this market"

@Conflux Yeah, with alts being illegal now, I don't see what his plan could be. Unless he actually has amassed an army to snipe this with YES bets at the last second.

log base what?

@SeamusBronski It actually does not matter: https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-team-yes-have-more-total-logsh#O62ngjsTvSuUhY7PZO2c

@42irrationalist If you use a negative base and then a total order the complex plane based on some space-filling fractal, that would be amusing but also very much against the spirit of the question :)

@Imuli Well, don't worry. As mentioned below, I will use a base greater than one, so this is equivalent to asking which team will have the largest product of shares. When I actually calculate the sum, I will use natural log.

I went one hyperoperation up:

This is currently my market closest to meeting the YES criteria for this one:

If we get 25 more traders, we can make it happen.

At the moment, NO shares are so cheap, that if 7 people spend 10 mana on NO shares each, team NO would be winning. And I guess even after that NO shares would still cost less than YES.

And the profit for those who buy these 10 mana positions would be like 500%

@Inosen_Infinity That's why I'm on team no.

@Inosen_Infinity The lead has narrowed even more. Now, all we need is for a single new trader to buy Ṁ2 worth of NO (7 shares), and Team NO will be ahead, with NO shares still being almost 3 times cheaper.

There's a hedgehog voting yes I feel bad for screwing over but I just became a turncoat and joined your cause

@Odoacre I don't think the M100 bet was a good idea. It makes NO shares cheaper while only giving about 5 log-shares to Team YES. Similar to what happened in the sqrt market, but this time making large bets is even riskier, since log grows much slower than sqrt.

@JosephNoonan I think it will be fine

@Odoacre We'll see. Although my comment was at least partially motivated by a desire to get people to bet NO.

Log base 10? Natural log? :D

@AlexRockwell It doesn't actually matter what base I use, as long as the base is greater than 1, since log_b(x)=log_a(x)/log_a(b), for any bases a and b, so using a different base is equivalent to multiplying both sums by a constant factor. But when doing the calculation, I will probably use natural log.

Oh yeah, youre right it doesnt matter :D Without thinking about it much, my intuition was suggesting that with a higher log base there would be more advantage to lots of little owners. But I guess its the same.