Will Joe Biden lose a single state in the 2024 Democratic primaries?
Sep 1

Will there be at least one state where Joe Biden doesn't get first place in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in that state?

See also: /JosephNoonan/will-donald-trump-lose-a-single-sta

Note: Only states count, not territories.

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bought Ṁ1,250 NO

Can resolve, I think.

Who do people think is going to take a state from him? RFK Jr. is no longer running in the primary, so now it's just Biden, Williams, and I guess Dean Phillips (I had never even heard of him until I just looked up whether there was anyone else in the primaries). Do people think Gavin Newsom is going to swoop in and declare candidacy last-minute?

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan He failed to get on the ballot in New Hampshire. So he has to be written in.

predicts NO

@BTE Yeah, I don't think it will be a big deal for him, though. It's not like people don't know who Biden is or that he's running. I actually have a market specifically about that:

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan Find me the last time a write in candidate won a primary.

predicts NO

@BTE Find me the last time a sitting president was a write-in candidate.

Exactly one or at least one?

@JimHays at least one