Will Joe Biden lose a single state in the 2024 Democratic primaries?
Basic
80
33k
resolved Jul 18
Resolved
NO

Will there be at least one state where Joe Biden doesn't get first place in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in that state?

See also: /JosephNoonan/will-donald-trump-lose-a-single-sta

Note: Only states count, not territories.

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bought Ṁ1,250 NO

Can resolve, I think.

Not sure how I missed this one. Yeah, it resolves NO even though it appears he won't be the nominee.

Who do people think is going to take a state from him? RFK Jr. is no longer running in the primary, so now it's just Biden, Williams, and I guess Dean Phillips (I had never even heard of him until I just looked up whether there was anyone else in the primaries). Do people think Gavin Newsom is going to swoop in and declare candidacy last-minute?

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan He failed to get on the ballot in New Hampshire. So he has to be written in.

predicted NO

@BTE Yeah, I don't think it will be a big deal for him, though. It's not like people don't know who Biden is or that he's running. I actually have a market specifically about that:

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Find me the last time a write in candidate won a primary.

predicted NO

@BTE Find me the last time a sitting president was a write-in candidate.

Exactly one or at least one?

@JimHays at least one