Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024?
110
1kṀ27k
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the U.S. presidential election. It doesn't have to be the same candidate who wins. It's possible for this not to happen if third parties or independents get enough of the vote that neither major party makes it to 50%.

US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Election margins
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,573
2Ṁ1,042
3Ṁ868
4Ṁ647
5Ṁ546
Sort by:

California still only at 72% reporting. Assuming those votes are 38% Trump like the rest of the state, he ends up at 50.01%. Outstanding votes in WA/OR should push that below 50.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@SentientTree Yeah, I think the linear projection based on votes already counted is slightly below 50. But uncounted votes are mail-in and so should make it even slightly lower than that.

bought Ṁ50 NO

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1855608085571580169

@PlasmaBallin Going to resolve this?

@StCredZero I don't think this can resolve yet. Trump may drop below 50% once California finishes counting.

This is for the presidential race, right?

@Joshua Yes, not sure how I managed to write the title and description without mentioning what race it was for.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy