Will any binary market reach NaN%?
Basic
17
Ṁ6647
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Although /cloudprism/will-any-market-reach-nan resolved YES, we still have not learned whether it is actually possible to bet so much on a market that the probability displays as NaN%, since that market resolved due to a deprecated market type displaying "Resolved NaN", which is a distinct glitch.

The glitch I'm talking about is this one:

This market will resolve YES if the probability of any market of the "Yes / No" market type displays as NaN% as a result of the glitch above (a large amount of mana being bet on one option and somehow destroying the probability calculation), and I receive evidence of this before close. Other glitches that cause it to display NaN% will not count.

Clarifications:

  • If this has already happened, I will count it as a YES if I find out about it before close.

  • All binary markets count for this, including delisted or private ones, but I have to receive proof that they really do say NaN% before close.

  • It still counts even if the probability only says NaN (rather than NaN%) or some equivalent. If it displays a non-numerical probability like "Error%" or just "%", I will also count it as long as it's clear that it was caused by the glitch in the image above.

  • In reference to the point above: If there is significant doubt as to whether it is caused by the glitch above, I may resolve to a probability or N/A.

  • It must display on the main page for the market itself to qualify for a YES resolution. However, I will resolve to 50% if a market's probability is displayed as NaN% in search or embeddings, but not on its main page.

  • This is about whether the actual probability is displayed as NaN%, not whether the betting interface says that it hypothetically would be NaN% if you bet enough. The latter is already the case, since that's the glitch in question.

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https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-kevin-mccarthy-get-into-a-phys said "Trade too large for current liquidity pool", so highly likely this will be NO.

predictedNO

@AnT Well, that actually answers the question I created this market to answer. I wanted to know if it was even possible to trade that much and if so what percentage would be displayed.

predictedYES

not quite a match, since it's from one of the new unlinked free responses and was due to resolution not betting, but I've seen some of these:

predictedNO

@Stralor I think this happens for all multiple choice markets. It wouldn't count even if it was a binary market, though, since it doesn't actually display that probability anywhere on the market's page.

.

But someone has to actually do it for this market to resolve yes, right?

,

And it has now closed.

predictedNO

@JohnSmithcf7b Did anyone actually bet 6358 mana and cause it to display NaN%?

predictedYES

.

predictedNO

@JohnSmithcf7b Then it does not resolve YES.

predictedNO

@JohnSmithcf7b The question is about whether a market will actually display a nan as the probability, not whether the betting interface will display it as a hypothetical probability. We already know that the betting interface can do that - if we didn't, then the picture in the description wouldn't exist.

It seems that the bug has been fixed. I am no longer seeing new prob NaN% on any market when I bet max yes.

@ShadowyZephyr I'll still leave it open, since the bug could resurface, but this is looking like an even safer NO bet now.

predictedNO

The old market was at 1%, what gives?

Is a single answer on a multi-binary market considered a binary market?

predictedNO

@Mira I assume not

predictedNO
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