Although /cloudprism/will-any-market-reach-nan resolved YES, we still have not learned whether it is actually possible to bet so much on a market that the probability displays as NaN%, since that market resolved due to a deprecated market type displaying "Resolved NaN", which is a distinct glitch.
The glitch I'm talking about is this one:
This market will resolve YES if the probability of any market of the "Yes / No" market type displays as NaN% as a result of the glitch above (a large amount of mana being bet on one option and somehow destroying the probability calculation), and I receive evidence of this before close. Other glitches that cause it to display NaN% will not count.
Clarifications:
If this has already happened, I will count it as a YES if I find out about it before close.
All binary markets count for this, including delisted or private ones, but I have to receive proof that they really do say NaN% before close.
It still counts even if the probability only says NaN (rather than NaN%) or some equivalent. If it displays a non-numerical probability like "Error%" or just "%", I will also count it as long as it's clear that it was caused by the glitch in the image above.
In reference to the point above: If there is significant doubt as to whether it is caused by the glitch above, I may resolve to a probability or N/A.
It must display on the main page for the market itself to qualify for a YES resolution. However, I will resolve to 50% if a market's probability is displayed as NaN% in search or embeddings, but not on its main page.
This is about whether the actual probability is displayed as NaN%, not whether the betting interface says that it hypothetically would be NaN% if you bet enough. The latter is already the case, since that's the glitch in question.
https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-kevin-mccarthy-get-into-a-phys said "Trade too large for current liquidity pool", so highly likely this will be NO.
@AnT Well, that actually answers the question I created this market to answer. I wanted to know if it was even possible to trade that much and if so what percentage would be displayed.
@Stralor I think this happens for all multiple choice markets. It wouldn't count even if it was a binary market, though, since it doesn't actually display that probability anywhere on the market's page.
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@JohnSmithcf7b The question is about whether a market will actually display a nan as the probability, not whether the betting interface will display it as a hypothetical probability. We already know that the betting interface can do that - if we didn't, then the picture in the description wouldn't exist.
It seems that the bug has been fixed. I am no longer seeing new prob NaN% on any market when I bet max yes.
@ShadowyZephyr I'll still leave it open, since the bug could resurface, but this is looking like an even safer NO bet now.