If the probability is at least 1% at close, I will use Fairly Random to generate a random integer between 1 and 100 times the closing probability, inclusive. So, for example, if this market closes at 50%, I will generate a random integer ≥1 and ≤50. If the number is prime, this market will resolve to Yes, and otherwise, it resolves to No.
If the closing probability is less than 1%, I will resolve the market to Yes, since it is vacuously true that, if I generate a random number between 1 and [some number less than 1], it will be prime.
Close date updated to 2023-03-01 11:59 pm
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@JosephNoonan your random number is: 24
Salt: FSHD3D3NIsOD5X5xO2ze, round: 2743421 (signature 8f352b79519dc8ca3b0fdb2e709f5d2a5f4da4036f46297631483917186bb6cfe6c698505bc1bf0e64750c0d375738ae03f13f563bc17a13ee3b680bfe410f7d9bf0d7fc56097d00087a3381059c11e025d448fbb9297669a921efd5de21534a)
@JosephNoonan you asked for a random integer between 1 and 34, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 2743419 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2743421, salt: FSHD3D3NIsOD5X5xO2ze.
Well, today is the time to do it if anyone wants to make a final play to change the probability of this market resolving YES. I will be interested to see if anyone tries to use any of the strategies mentioned in the comments, like selling some of their shares to make the rest more valuable (by increasing the probability that the market resolves favorably) or spiking it all the way down to 1% at the last minute to make sure it resolves NO. And if so, how successful those strategies will be.
@B There's still a potential scenario where, just before resolution, a large holder of NO sells off some of their stake to improve the odds for the rest of their stake (or a large holder of YES the same). Not sure if it's positive EV.
@AndrewHyer It's also possible that someone bets it all the way down to 1% right before close to guarantee that it resolves NO. That would be risky, though, unless they can make sure it doesn't go back up to 2% or more. And it would take a lot of mana.
@AndrewHyer I said I would generate a random integer between 1 and 100*p (where p is the closing probability), but, if p<1% this is impossible, since there are no integers between 1 and 100*p<1. So I had two options for what to do in that case: Either resolve the market to N/A, or interpret the question in a way that has a definite answer, and state the answer beforehand so that people aren't confused by the resolution.
The first option is boring, since an N/A resolution means no one profits in the end, so I chose the second one, and interpreted the question as "True or false: If I generate a random number between 1 and 100*p, it will be prime." If p>=1%, I will actually generate the number, so the truth value is determined by what number I generate. If p<1%, then I will not generate such a number, since it is impossible to do that, so the statement "If I generate a random number between 1 and 100*p, it will be prime," is vacuously true (since "If [false statement], then X," is true for all X).