The unexpected hanging paradox regards a prisoner who is told that he will be executed on one of five days, but that he will not know which day the execution is on until the executioner knocks on his cell door.
This market is one of five markets that will resolve on August 21 to August 25. They can all be found in the Unexpected Hanging Paradox group. I will resolve one of the markets to YES on the day mentioned in its title, and the other four will be resolved to NO. However, the day will be a surprise: No one will know what day it's going to happen until I resolve one of the markets YES.
I will not bet on any of these five markets, since I will know what day they are going to resolve.
Sha256 hash: 3f75dc7c733335e5af1dcf7b90f384a16e6943e8e44bd95b7c4544185a7c04b3
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@NiciusB seems to me that it has to be today or it won't be a surprise. Are you betting in the "will it be a surprise" market? Might be an opportunity to either double down at better odds, or hedge your bets.
@Fion I have a small bet on YES on that market for hedging yeah, but I don't wanna bother estimating odds for that one tbh
@Fion I agree that today is the last day that will be under 50%.
That said, Plasma may have wanted to make it as late as possible for drama, and may have convinced themselves that Wednesday would still be under 50.
In a way Monday is the most likely day because it is the best day to ensure the probability is under 50%.
However, there is direct motivation not to choose Monday, namely because it is the obvious day (Vizzini: Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me. (quotes.net))
Friday is out. That means Thursday probability will be above 50% if it comes, which makes it extremely unlikely. So I'll go all in on Wednesday if we get there and so will a lot of other people.
So, Tuesday then.
@JosephNoonan nice. And seeing that logic I went all in on this question. Temporary sold off much of my stable long term bets to bet 25% of my capital on Mon, 50% on Tue and 25% against all other days.
Earned me 700M in profit overall. Happy person here. Good market! @Plasma42
@JosephNoonan aha yes I absolutely was Mr Plasma Balling. Thanks for spotting!
And thank you for the very entertaining week.
Can you provide a hash commitment of the chosen day (with appropriate salt) in the description, with the salt being revealed when the market resolved? This will increase the trustworthiness of the poll. Example, sha256("August 24, asdfg") = d981cd637e86f47c81162958c99136660133991c6fc5f09521ed1cc52471293d