The unexpected hanging paradox regards a prisoner who is told that he will be executed on one of five days, but that he will not know which day the execution is on until the executioner knocks on his cell door.
This market is one of five markets that will resolve on August 21 to August 25. They can all be found in the Unexpected Hanging Paradox group. I will resolve one of the markets to YES on the day mentioned in its title, and the other four will be resolved to NO. However, the day will be a surprise: No one will know what day it's going to happen until I resolve one of the markets YES.
I will not bet on any of these five markets, since I will know what day they are going to resolve.
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110 shares isn't that much lol it sells up to 37
@DavidBolin Where are you getting these numbers from? When I'm writing this, the markets say 30% Wednesday, 20% Thursday, 15% Friday. That implies that, if the prisoner is still alive on midnight Wednesday, the probabilities should be 46% Wednesday, 31% Thursday, and 23% Friday.
@DavidBolin I don't expect them to exactly normalize, but assuming that the market is at least approximately rational, they should come somewhat close. I have no idea how they would end up with Friday having a smaller probability than it does now, except by more people becoming convinced by the argument that it won't resolve on that day.
@gigab0nus elsewhere it was pointed out that's what that is but all this talk of salted hash makes me hungry