[Short fuse] Will "Uncommitted" get more than 14% of the total vote in Michigan's Democratic presidential primary?
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resolved Feb 28
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NO

With 89% of the vote in, "Uncommitted" is at 13.8% of the vote. The largest portion of the remaining vote is in Wayne County, which has so far had a much higher percentage than that (the largest of any county), though there are some counties with a smaller percentage that they still have left to count.

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I think I can resolve this now. New York Times says 100% of delegates are allocated, which means that either all of the votes are counted or there are so few uncounted that it couldn't possibly shift any percentages by a substantial amount. And "Uncommitted" is no longer close to 14% anyway.

bought Ṁ5 YES

The percent just ticked down slightly, but don't let that fool you. The remaining vote is now almost all Wayne County, with the downtick being caused by the outstanding votes from all the other counties being counted. So it can basically only go up from here. The question is whether it goes up fast enough with only about 6% of the vote left.

bought Ṁ500 NO

@PlasmaBallin ... or not

bought Ṁ15 NO

@PlasmaBallin I think we're using different data, but it's okay, one of us will lose ❤

bought Ṁ600 NO

@Lion I think we're using the same data now. They just reported the last tranche of Wayne County votes, which had a way lower percentage of Uncommitted votes than the previous ones counted. Either that, or New York Times had a typo or something.

@PlasmaBallin I don't use NYT for results. I love the needle, but the result livetracker isn't it. (for betting, I use them to varify results for my questions.)