Plasma's guessing game: Which works are my favorite?
18
462
1.3K
Mar 1
87%
Gödel, Escher, Bach
54%
baldur’s gate 3
46%
Had to start with at least one option, so how about this: This option resolves YES if Diary of a Wimpy Kid *would have* been my favorite print comic if I had counted it as one.
42%
elden ring
42%
Watchmen
35%
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
Resolved
YES
Homestuck
Resolved
YES
dungeons&dragons

I recently calculated scores to determine Manifold's favorite movie, book, TV show, print comic, webcomic, song, video game, board game, role-playing game, short story, poem, podcast, YouTube channel, and play, based on the results of a survey. But what are my favorites?

I don't actually have definitive favorites in each of these categories because some of them just have too many excellent works to choose between. However, I can say that I have a definitive favorite book, TV show, print comic, webcomic, role-playing game, short story, podcast, YouTube channel, and play. I also have two favorite video games and I've already basically revealed that one of them is Super Mario Galaxy, so you'll have to guess the other one here. I will also reveal that all of my favorites were options of the Manifold's favorites survey, though I wasn't necessarily the one who submitted them.

I will resolve all the options which are one of my favorites to YES and all the ones that aren't to NO, unless they're duplicates, in which case I'll resolve them N/A. If you answer with a movie, song, or board game, I'll resolve N/A since I don't have definitive favorites in those categories. I'll also resolve any options that aren't part of any of these categories, or that are incoherent, to N/A.

I will wait at least until the listed closing time to resolve all the options, but I'll open it for longer if not all of my favorites have been guessed yet.

I won't bet on this market, since I already know the answers.

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Homestuck

Now I get to cause a major upset. The highest probability option resolves NO and lowest probability resolves YES. I have actually hinted at this by making Homestuck references on Manifold, but I have probably muddied the waters by also making xkcd references.

I think some people submitted answers without noticing that the description said that all correct answers were answers submitted to the "Manifold's favorites" markets.

sold Ṁ10 of The Legend of Zelda:... NO

@PlasmaBallin Do you think we remember those? It would have helped to get a link.

Hm, hasn't been much activity on this. I was hoping for there to be more before I revealed any but I guess I'll give the first YES reveal.

D&D is in fact my favorite role-playing game, although it doesn't have much competition because I haven't really played any others.

Better Call Saul

I'm surprised this didn't go way down after I said that I'd never seen Breaking Bad.

I will give another clue: Multiple of my favorites are also Manifold's favorite.

@JosephNoonan Also, some of my favorites are things that I've referenced on Manifold before. So you may be able to use that as a clue if you can find the references. Or look to the original Manifold's favorites markets to see if anything I said or did might suggest that one is my favorite.

Super Mario Galaxy 2

This would be funny, but I did say that all the options were works that were submitted for the survey. Also, I kind of lump SMG2 in with the original because they're such similar games. My other favorite video game is different enough that it's difficult to compare it to Super Mario Galaxy.

@JosephNoonan Oh, I know. I submitted it as a joke option.

Breaking Bad

First revelation: I've never actually watched Breaking Bad. I've heard that it's super good but haven't gotten around to finding out for myself.

Not all of my favorites have been guessed yet, so I won't resolve these all. But now that the market has reached its original closing time, I'll start sprinkling the resolutions in.

@JosephNoonan I can, however, confirm that there is at least one correct answer on the board right now.

How are Homestuck and xkcd both at 59%? Only one of them can be my favorite webcomic.

bought Ṁ10 of baldur’s gate 3 NO

@JosephNoonan Kinda seems like it'd have been best to make a single linked market for each medium.

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