Manifold Plays Chomp: Third move
Basic
3
Ṁ286
resolved Nov 18
100%88%
(4,1)
1.4%
3%
(2,1)
4%
(2,2)
4%Other

The rules of Chomp are simple. Players alternate turns, on each turn removing a square, as well as all those that are above or the the right of it (in other words, all squares with both coordinates ≥ it). The goal is to avoid having to eat the poison square (the one with the skull on it).

On Manifold Plays Chomp, Manifolders are playing against a computer, which I'm pretty sure plays optimally. Manifold's moves are chosen as follows: For each move, I take the top three options at close and make a market for each asking whether Manifold will win, given that that option is chosen. Whichever option has the highest average probability is the one that gets chosen.

The computers' last move was (2,5), leaving the current state of the board as:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Okay, here are the conditional markets. I combined them all into a single linked MC market:

Hm, three suicidal answers. In theory, this could be sabotaged by someone hoping to make Manifold lose.

@JosephNoonan Why do you think I have a big limit order at 51%? ;-)

Clearly ☠ is the best move.

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