The AI risk letter market is behaving very strangely, leading some to suspect that fishy business is afoot. It was made by a new creator who hasn't made any other markets, and delisted it for unknown reasons. The creator hasn't been participating in the discussion in the comments, and some comments were hidden for unknown reasons. But what really makes people think that something weird is going on is the trading activity. The graph of the probability is unusual to say the least, and multiple traders have invested ridiculous amounts on YES despite the event in question seeming very unlikely. On top of that, the market seems wildly miscalibrated.

This market will resolve YES if I learn of something that I deem to be fishy business before it closes (this market, not the AI letter market). Examples would include:

• The creator intends to misresolve the market.

• The creator is secretly using a bizarre, misleading, or non-common-sensical interpretation of the resolution criteria (e.g., saying that a letter that released long before the referenced letter counts, or resolving based on a letter that hasn't been released to the public yet).

• There is some ulterior purpose for the market's existence (beyond being genuinely predictive, raising awareness about AI risk, or similar non-fishy motives).

• Some of the major traders have ulterior motives for their trades, beyond the obvious "non-fishy" motives (e.g. trying to trick people into thinking they have inside knowledge, trying to manipulate another market ).

• The creator re-lists the market last minute to cause a big shake-up in Leagues.

• Large-scale collusion among traders to manipulate the market's mechanics in some way.

• Large-scale alt activity

• The whole thing was a social experiment.

• Someone makes a serious attempt to manipulate the outcome.

Examples of non-fishy business:

• Someone genuinely has inside knowledge.

• People got fooled into thinking someone had inside knowledge by a positive feedback loop that no one intended.

• Someone makes a meta-market on the AI letter market, and someone tries to manipulate it in an obvious way that any trader can figure out.