How confident will 538's final 2024 presidential election forecast be?

Basic

4

แน89Nov 5

1D

1W

1M

ALL

72%

At least 60%

41%

At least 70%

34%

At least 80%

13%

At least 90%

FiveThirtyEight recently released their forecast for the 2024 election: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

How confident will they be in a particular candidate winning when they freeze their forecast on Election Day? All options that are true of the probability of whichever candidate is the favorite to win resolve YES, e.g., if any candidate has at least a 70% chance of winning, "At least 70%" resolves YES. I will base this on the probabilities 538 displays prominently (i.e., the ones that are rounded to the nearest percent, if their current display doesn't change), rather than the more precise values based on the exact proportion of simulations in which one candidate wins.

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1,000

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