Mini
23
Ṁ19k
2025
91%
10/31 Halloween
91%
12/25 Christmas
75%
11/28 Thanksgiving
71%
11/05 U.S. Election Day
57%
12/21 Winter Solstice (or winter in general)
49%
12/31 New Year's Eve
42%
07/26 - 08/11 Paris Olympics
19%
09/22 Fall equinox (or fall in general)
12%
10/14 Columbus Day and/or Indigenous People's Day
12%
11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day
12%
09/02 Labor Day
10%
10/07 - 10/14 Nobel Prize announcements
9%
11/01 - 11/02 Day of the Dead
3%
10/09 Leif Erikson Day
1%
07/04 U.S. Independence Day
Resolved
YES
03/31 Easter
Resolved
YES
04/01 April Fools Day

Resolves YES for all events which cause Manifold to temporarily change the logo displayed on the top left of the site to be themed after the event. The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons). The dates listed are also subject to change if the event could be rescheduled (e.g., the first U.S. presidential debate). If an event is canceled, it resolves N/A.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
07/04 U.S. Independence Day
bought Ṁ693 07/04 U.S. Independe... NO

@PlasmaBallin didn't see a logo change yesterday - this one can resolve no 🦅

@PlasmaBallin resolve more no

bought Ṁ334 Answer #ef87d3edf42b NO

@PlasmaBallin some of these can resolve 🚀

bought Ṁ75 Answer #d1794dc3b867 NO

hey @PlasmaBallin - mind resolving the June dates? 🙏

reposted

any pivot logo change bets?

04/22 Earth Day

This can resolve NO

This can resolve NO

bought Ṁ10 11/28 Thanksgiving YES

election day for sure

04/01 April Fools Day
bought Ṁ150 04/01 April Fools Day YES

@PlasmaBallin apparently we got 2 logo changes in 2 days.

I am going to buy so much YES shares in this market!

sold Ṁ13 04/01 April Fools Day YES

Our first positive resolution. I wonder if this decreases the probability that April Fool's Day resolves YES since they might not want to introduce a new logo two days in a row.

03/31 Easter
bought Ṁ35 03/31 Easter YES

bought Ṁ120 Answer #695f19551b5d NO

Resolve NO?

@RS This one doesn't resolve NO, note in the description:

The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons)

@RS The date is just there so you can easily order things by using the A-Z sort

sold Ṁ144 Answer #695f19551b5d NO

@PlasmaBallin ah gotcha, thanks

10/31 Halloween

Wrong date @PlasmaBallin

@nikki whoops

Can resolve NO?

bought Ṁ200 Answer #ecfd7db4687a NO

Can resolve NO?

bought Ṁ100 Answer #4e7b6167418f NO

Can resolve NO?

03/05 Super Tuesday
bought Ṁ200 03/05 Super Tuesday NO

The logo isn't changed currently, so this will almost surely resolve NO. Unless they are only planning on changing it in the evening.

.

bought Ṁ30 Answer #38a680ee00ac NO

Several of them can resolve already, right? (Groundhog day, blue Monday)

@Ramble I'm going to N/A those because they passed before the market was created.

More related questions