For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2024?

Basic

Ṁ24k

Jan 1

91%

12/25 Christmas

76%

11/28 Thanksgiving

40%

12/21 Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

27%

12/31 New Year's Eve

Resolved

YES

10/31 Halloween

Resolved

YES

03/31 Easter

Resolved

YES

04/01 April Fools Day

Resolved

N/A

Groundhog Day

Resolved

N/A

Blue Monday

Resolves YES for all events which cause Manifold to temporarily change the logo displayed on the top left of the site to be themed after the event. The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons). The dates listed are also subject to change if the event could be rescheduled (e.g., the first U.S. presidential debate). If an event is canceled, it resolves N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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10/31 Halloween

bought Ṁ400 10/31 Halloween YES

@PlasmaBallin

bought Ṁ25 08/? Cash prizes rel... NO

@PlasmaBallin labor day, fall equinox, & cash prizes day resolve NO

@PlasmaBallin looks like this can be NO?

bought Ṁ693 Answer #16108f4326df NO

@PlasmaBallin didn't see a logo change yesterday - this one can resolve no 🦅

@PlasmaBallin resolve more no

bought Ṁ334 Answer #ef87d3edf42b NO

@PlasmaBallin some of these can resolve 🚀

bought Ṁ75 Answer #d1794dc3b867 NO

hey @PlasmaBallin - mind resolving the June dates? 🙏

reposted

any pivot logo change bets?

04/22 Earth Day

This can resolve NO

04/08 "Great North American Eclipse"

This can resolve NO

bought Ṁ10 11/28 Thanksgiving YES

election day for sure

04/01 April Fools Day

bought Ṁ150 04/01 April Fools Day YES

@PlasmaBallin apparently we got 2 logo changes in 2 days.

I am going to buy so much YES shares in this market!

sold Ṁ13 04/01 April Fools Day YES

Our first positive resolution. I wonder if this decreases the probability that April Fool's Day resolves YES since they might not want to introduce a new logo two days in a row.

03/31 Easter

bought Ṁ35 03/31 Easter YES

03/19 Spring equinox (or spring in general)

bought Ṁ120 03/19 Spring equinox... NO

Resolve NO?

@RS This one doesn't resolve NO, note in the description:

The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons)

@RS The date is just there so you can easily order things by using the A-Z sort

sold Ṁ144 03/19 Spring equinox... NO

@PlasmaBallin ah gotcha, thanks

10/31 Halloween

Wrong date @PlasmaBallin

@nikki whoops

Can resolve NO?

03/10 The Oscars

bought Ṁ200 03/10 The Oscars NO

Can resolve NO?

03/08 International Women's Day

bought Ṁ100 03/08 International ... NO

Can resolve NO?

03/05 Super Tuesday

bought Ṁ200 03/05 Super Tuesday NO

The logo isn't changed currently, so this will almost surely resolve NO. Unless they are only planning on changing it in the evening.

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