For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2024?
21
189
3.7K
2025
94%
10/31 Halloween
93%
12/25 Christmas
90%
11/05 U.S. Election Day
75%
11/28 Thanksgiving
66%
06/07-06/09 Manifest
65%
07/26 - 08/11 Paris Olympics
64%
06/** Pride Month
60%
07/04 U.S. Independence Day
57%
12/21 Winter Solstice (or winter in general)
50%
The Pivot release
49%
12/31 New Year's Eve
37%
06/20 Summer Solstice (or summer in general)
30%
09/22 Fall equinox (or fall in general)
17%
05/04 Star Wars Day
15%
04/22 Earth Day
15%
06/19 Juneteenth
12%
10/14 Columbus Day and/or Indigenous People's Day
12%
09/02 Labor Day
11%
06/16 Father's Day
10%
10/07 - 10/14 Nobel Prize announcements

Resolves YES for all events which cause Manifold to temporarily change the logo displayed on the top left of the site to be themed after the event. The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons). The dates listed are also subject to change if the event could be rescheduled (e.g., the first U.S. presidential debate). If an event is canceled, it resolves N/A.

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04/08 "Great North American Eclipse"

This can resolve NO

bought Ṁ10 11/28 Thanksgiving YES

election day for sure

04/01 April Fools Day
bought Ṁ150 04/01 April Fools Day YES

@PlasmaBallin apparently we got 2 logo changes in 2 days.

I am going to buy so much YES shares in this market!

sold Ṁ13 04/01 April Fools Day YES

Our first positive resolution. I wonder if this decreases the probability that April Fool's Day resolves YES since they might not want to introduce a new logo two days in a row.

03/31 Easter
bought Ṁ35 03/31 Easter YES

03/19 Spring equinox (or spring in general)
bought Ṁ120 03/19 Spring equinox... NO

Resolve NO?

@RS This one doesn't resolve NO, note in the description:

The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons)

@RS The date is just there so you can easily order things by using the A-Z sort

sold Ṁ144 03/19 Spring equinox... NO

@PlasmaBallin ah gotcha, thanks

10/31 Halloween

Wrong date @PlasmaBallin

@nikki whoops

03/17 Saint Patrick's Day

Can resolve NO?

03/10 The Oscars
bought Ṁ200 03/10 The Oscars NO

Can resolve NO?

03/08 International Women's Day
bought Ṁ100 03/08 International ... NO

Can resolve NO?

03/05 Super Tuesday
bought Ṁ200 03/05 Super Tuesday NO

The logo isn't changed currently, so this will almost surely resolve NO. Unless they are only planning on changing it in the evening.

.

bought Ṁ30 Blue Monday NO

Several of them can resolve already, right? (Groundhog day, blue Monday)

@Ramble I'm going to N/A those because they passed before the market was created.

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