Pip Foweraker's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.41
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Pip Foweraker bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will Yudkowsky make a profit on the superconductor market?YESṀ100
- Will Australia vote affirmatively to add an 'Indigenous Voice to Parliament' into the constitution during 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Australia vote affirmatively to add an 'Indigenous Voice to Parliament' into the constitution during 2023?NOṀ100
80%
- Will it be possible for AI to generate reasonably good video ads by (start of) 2024?NOṀ200
- Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?YESṀ150
- Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024?NOṀ100
90%