MANIFOLD
When will we see credible evidence that Microsoft's memo about security tradeoffs was not applied?
3
Ṁ150Ṁ114
2030
48%
Before 2024-07-01
69%
Before 2025-01-01
70%
Before 2025-07-01
75%
Before 2026-01-01
54%
In 2026 or after
46%
In 2030 or after, possibly never

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said in a memo to Microsoft's employees:

If you’re faced with the tradeoff between security and another priority, your answer is clear: Do security. In some cases, this will mean prioritizing security above other things we do, such as releasing new features or providing ongoing support for legacy systems. This is key to advancing both our platform quality and capability such that we can protect the digital estates of our customers and build a safer world for all.

This market resolves when a security issue is discovered in a Microsoft product where it is reasonably obvious that if security had been prioritized as the memo commands, the issue would have been avoided. (If there is enough doubt, a poll will be created to decide)

https://www.theverge.com/24148033/satya-nadella-microsoft-security-memo

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CVE-2026-20841 looked like a possible candidate but it's unclear if this code was added after the memo was issued. Is there an easy way to cross-reference CVEs and software releases to find a CVE that only applies to versions released after the memo?

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