Pickle's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -5.93
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Pickle bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ300
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ268
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ169
30%
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ300
- Will mrgirls manifesto on Destiny be less than 150 pages when released?NOṀ45
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ35
40%
- Will Destiny be on Joe Rogan by the end of the year?NOṀ100
- In light of the recently leaked "hate flirting" dms, will Destiny engage in sexual relations with Lav again in 2023?NOṀ40
- Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will there be property damage reported by the media?NOṀ30
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%