I was hanging out with a single friend of mine last night late at night at my place when he got a call from a single woman friend of his. I overheard most of the phone call- the woman in question talked about her troubles and worries, expressed concerns and worries about dating, university study etc and they talked about many aspects of her life at the moment in a free-ranging way. While they talked about her troubles extensively she didn't seem overwhelmingly upset. Throughout the call, she was referring to him by a pet name that was very cutesy. After the call ended, at 11 pm at night, my friend told me that he was going to visit this woman. I made some cheeky remarks that indicated that he likely was going to have sex, and he indicated that he was mystified I would think this was a serious possibility. I pointed out that, in addition to all the proceeding facts, he also had an extensive history of falling into sexual relationships in spontaneous and surprising ways, and with great frequency. He indicated that he thought it very silly that I would think the foregoing facts gave any indication he was likely to do anything sexual or romantic with this person. I said that to test whether it was a crazy inference to make, I was going to put it on Manifold carefully anonymised and he agreed.

Next time I see my friend, I will ask him if he did indeed have sex that night with that person. This market will resolve accordingly. I will not bet.