@traders Unless there are any objections, I think this should resolve yes for the Rootclaim/Kirsch debate.
I suppose there's some minor ambiguity here, in that their debate is mostly via text and the verbal portion won't happen until next year, but the text debate did start in 2024 and they wagered a lot more than 50k.

https://kirschsubstack.com/p/the-1m-covid-vaccine-debate-is-now

Haven't seen many new attempts to debate, besides the Kirsch one which will not happen

@nikki Rootclaim did also try to start a debate over whether Malaysia Airlines flight 370 was disappeared by UFO's, but the UFO people refused to take the challenge.

@PeterMillerc030 These new ones are entirely non-serious

I imagine people would be more willing to take them up on a debate if there's precedent of them losing.

So perhaps we should bet yes here if we expect you to have won your debate and we should bet no if we think you lost 🤔

@Joshua For an even more specific market:
https://manifold.markets/PeterMillerc030/will-rootclaim-debate-covid-origins

@PeterMillerc030 With an estimated net worth of 100 million dollars, Saar Wilf can only afford to lose 1,000 Rootclaim challenges.

However, that assumes that all challenges resolve against Rootclaim simultaneously. Assuming a 7% return on investments and a 100% debate loss rate, Rootclaim can still afford to lose 70 challenges per year without a net loss of wealth.

We can conclude that the rate at which Rootclaim debates occur is limited by demand, not supply.