When will the temperature drop below 0F in the Northeast USA for the first time this winter (see description)?
4
135Ṁ346
resolved Dec 10
100%96%
December 1st - 15th
3%
October or November
1.8%
December 16th or later

For this question, only stations below 600 meters/2,000 feet of elevation are considered. When the low falls under 0F at any weather station below that elevation in all of the U.S. Census defined Northeastern United States, this market will resolve based on the date it happened.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ64
2Ṁ14
3Ṁ4
Sort by:

Overnight, it reached -7.8 degrees Fahrenheit at the METAR site K40B, aka Clayton Lake, Maine, at 322 meters of elevation, and there are currently widespread temperatures below 0°F in northern Maine. I am unaware of any nights in late November at weather stations in the Northeastern USA below 0°F, so this question will resolve between 12 and 24 hours from now, unless someone presents evidence of a reliable low elevation weather station in the Northeast that fell below 0 during November.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules