Trump just tweeted something. What will be his next tweet?

This time calculated by text embeddings, instead of Levenshtein distance, to better capture the meaning, instead of the specific words, of the tweet

I will:

• take all tweets from @realDonaldTrump made before the election

• clean them (e.g. removing hashtags and links from the end of the post)

• calculate their text embeddings

• calculate the text embeddings of all the options submitted in this market

• resolve all options that closely match a real tweet as YES

How do we define a "close match"?

Refer to the following document:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16VT92CjXOdQDlIrl2IPwgi9HxrF6PRxIrza720IcOx4/edit?usp=sharing

If the embedding distance is LOWER than the distance between ANY real Trump tweet and hypothetical alternative, it is deemed a close match.

Important caveats:

• Only text written by the user "@realDonaldTrump" counts, for example a repost without any additional text is not eligible. Replies count. Any other types of posts count as long as there's text written by "@realDonaldTrump".

• Text in images/videos/sound doesn't count.

• If the account is hacked or Trump didn't write the post himself, that doesn't matter as long as the post is created by "@realDonaldTrump".

• If the post is deleted before this market is resolved, it becomes not eligible.

• I will use whichever publicly available embedder is at the top of the MTEB leaderboard at resolution time

• I might add more examples to the reference sheet in the first week after market creation

• If you want to include a longer answer that doesn't fit in the manifold answer field, create an option and leave the full answer as comment

To use this market:

• think about the possible ideological space that Trump might occupy. Will he call for leaving Ukraine and stopping funding? Will he move for a healthcare reform? Etc.

• ask gpt/claude to generate plausible tweets in his voice on the topic

• add them as a new option

See also the Kamala market