Peter Bennett's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.47
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Peter Bennett bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? ("The Market")NOṀ100
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy's poll numbers be higher by at least 1% a week after the 1st Republican debate?NOṀ100
- A physics lab will have received a package of the LK-99 material sent from the researchers by the end of AugustYESṀ100
90%
95%
97%