Will someone post a "nice" market summary (69-69-69-69) before February?
22
342
450
resolved Dec 7
Resolved
YES

Here's a crappy edited screenshot of what I'm talking about.

Resolves YES if someone posts a legitimate unedited screenshot of a Manifold market, with 69 in each of the four numbers, to the comments of this market, before the closing date. The screenshot can be of any real Manifold market and the graph can look like whatever.

I think this should be possible by carefully manipulating a market with a few friends. I think it's extremely unlikely to happen by chance.

I'll assess the legitimacy of the screenshot. To support your claim, include a link to the market and a description of how you made it happen. I'll take into account arguments in the comments for and against legitimacy.

If someone proves that this is mathematically impossible, I will resolve NA and make a new, easier market.

I will not bet on this market.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ308
2Ṁ72
3Ṁ41
4Ṁ26
5Ṁ12
Sort by:
bought Ṁ120 of YES

I finally got a strategy figured out and pulled it off with an alt account:

predicted YES

Here’s how I did it:

Alt sells 90 NO

I sell 32 YES

Alt sells 93 NO

I sell 33 NO

I sell 10 NO

Alt sells 8 NO

The first 3 blocks of trades are to get my account at +116 profit. Then the alt account drops the probability to 0.5%, which lets me buy 69 NO. because the probability is so low, the payout rounds to the same value. The alt then buys 71 YES, bringing the prob to 69%, and the 116 profit from earlier drops to exactly 69%

bought Ṁ70 of YES
predicted YES

@TonyPepperoni this looks legit to me. The trade history and graph matches what you said. The method seems like it should work.

I said I would take into account arguments against, so I'll resolve YES in 24 hours to give people a chance to argue that this is fake.

Anyone want to do it with me?

@oh Unlisted, unranked, and unsubsidized, ofc

what I assume would be the best way to get this would be to use two accounts (which is prob against tos) use one to bet yes on a market at 40% ish so the max profit would be above 69 then use the other account to bring that market to around 99% then sell shares on the first account to lock in the profit, then spend 69 yes, then use the second account to bring the market down to 69 with the extra profit gained earlier getting cancelled out to 69

What does "real Manifold market" mean? Are you imposing a minimum trader count, or requiring that it be on a topic of real-world importance?

@IsaacKing I just mean not fake. It has to exist on Manifold, so don't photoshop it.

Nice

Would -M69 be an acceptable Profit here? Or must it be positive? (inb4 it's obviously impossible to have -M69 profit - it is almost midnight for me)

@PatrickStevens yes I'll allow it