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I finally got a strategy figured out and pulled it off with an alt account:

@TonyPepperoni

Here’s how I did it:

Alt buys 90 NO

I buy 32 YES

Alt sells 90 NO

I sell 32 YES

Alt buys 93 NO

I buy 33 YES

Alt sells 93 NO

I sell 33 NO

I buy 10 NO

Alt buys 8 YES

I sell 10 NO

Alt sells 8 NO

Alt buys 670 NO

I buy 69 NO

Alt buys 71 YES

The first 3 blocks of trades are to get my account at +116 profit. Then the alt account drops the probability to 0.5%, which lets me buy 69 NO. because the probability is so low, the payout rounds to the same value. The alt then buys 71 YES, bringing the prob to 69%, and the 116 profit from earlier drops to exactly 69%

@TonyPepperoni Here’s a link to the market: https://manifold.markets/manakin/test-0aaaf23e0c66

@TonyPepperoni amazing

@TonyPepperoni nice

@TonyPepperoni this looks legit to me. The trade history and graph matches what you said. The method seems like it should work.

I said I would take into account arguments against, so I'll resolve YES in 24 hours to give people a chance to argue that this is fake.

Anyone want to do it with me?

@oh Unlisted, unranked, and unsubsidized, ofc

what I assume would be the best way to get this would be to use two accounts (which is prob against tos) use one to bet yes on a market at 40% ish so the max profit would be above 69 then use the other account to bring that market to around 99% then sell shares on the first account to lock in the profit, then spend 69 yes, then use the second account to bring the market down to 69 with the extra profit gained earlier getting cancelled out to 69

What does "real Manifold market" mean? Are you imposing a minimum trader count, or requiring that it be on a topic of real-world importance?

@IsaacKing I just mean not fake. It has to exist on Manifold, so don't photoshop it.

Nice

Would -M69 be an acceptable Profit here? Or must it be positive? (inb4 it's obviously impossible to have -M69 profit - it is almost midnight for me)

@PatrickStevens yes I'll allow it