See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score
This is about predicting individual house and senate races, as of the day before the election, not the overall presidential race.
If it's obvious that one forecaster performed better (e.g. they correctly predict the overall winner and the other predicts the opposite) then this market resolves accordingly.
If someone else's analysis showing that one forecaster performed better, then I'll go with that as long as it seems statistically sensible. I'll count an analysis from Silver or 538 themselves.
If it's not obvious and noone else does an analysis or there are multiple conflicting analyses, then I'll calculate Brier scores myself. I'll use the predicted probabilities for the house, senate and governor elections if available. Lowest Brier score wins.
Update 2025-09-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator notes it may be impossible to compare forecasts now that FiveThirtyEight no longer exists.
If a statistically sensible analysis or a strong argument showing one did better is provided before October, the market will resolve accordingly.
If no such argument exists by then, or comparison remains infeasible, the market will resolve N/A.
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@SentientTree afaik noone looked into it, and now 538 no longer exists. IIRC the predictions were very similar.
I know Silver's estimate for the overall winner was slightly better but I have no idea about the states.
Sorry I didn't think about what would happen if it's not possible to compare them. If anyone can give me a strong argument one way or the other before October then I'll resolve, otherwise I'll resolve NA.
@HillaryClinton ok yeah if Nate didn't predict the house and senate races then only presidential race by states count.
Has someone done an analysis already?
@Paulf4db No, I'm too lazy, but it looks like it should win. Sorry don't have the time at the moment to do it.
I just reread my description and it doesn't say what I meant to say 🤦.
I meant to say I would include the house, senate and governor elections AS WELL AS the presidential elections in each state. Not sure what to do about this.
Also, I'm not a paid subscriber to Silver Bulletin. I'll do the Brier score if someone sends me the final probabilities.
If I end up doing it, I would count each state (and congressional district for Maine and Nebraska) as a separate prediction.
@jacksonpolack that said, if someone does an analysis based on earlier predictions, I'm not likely to do a whole new analysis of the day before unless it seems necessary.