Will non-verified Twitter uses be able to vote in polls on September 27 2023? | Manifold Markets

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Will non-verified Twitter uses be able to vote in polls on September 27 2023?

20

closes Sep 26

84%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Elon Musk has said that from 5th April 2023, only verified Twitter users will be able to vote in polls. Will this policy be in effect six months from today, on September 27 2023, or will voting be allowed again?

This resolves to YES if any non-verified user can vote in any poll on that day.

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Shaiis predicting NO at 57%

Did someone say Twitter drama?

Cameron Holmesbought Ṁ5 of NO

I expect there will be a period of time where linking to an external vote becomes the common practice and that this will be materially worse than the current state but much better than the $7 votes.

I'm No just at these odds because I expect it might take longer for a U-turn

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42irrationalist

Will non-verified users be able to vote in Twitter polls on 30 September 2023?87%

Will Elon Musk make Twitter verification a requirement for voting in polls by the end of 2023?24%

Will Twitter change the rules and mechanisms around verification again before EOY 2023?75%

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?17%

Will Twitter add a domain-based checkmark feature by June 15th, 2023?8%

Will Twitter have more Daily Active Users at the end of 2023?59%

At the end of 2023 will manifold users think Twitter has changed for the better?35%

In 2023, will former users return to Twitter AND will changes at Twitter be a surprise?42%

Part 1: In 2023, will former users return to Twitter?50%

Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2023?6%

Will Twitter still exist? (2024)95%

Will I start using Twitter before 2024 (EOY 2023)?35%

Will Twitter have a lower percentage of bot users at the end of 2023?62%

At the end of 2023 will Twitter be profitable?28%

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?91%

Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?59%

Dominic de Bettencourt

Will I have a viral tweet in 2023?15%

Will Aella retweet any of my Twitter polls before the end of 2023?8%

Collected Over Spread

Will I have any Twitter account notifications enabled on my phone at the end of 2023?28%

Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030?84%