Patrick Delaney's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.91
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Patrick Delaney bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
- Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023NOṀ2
- Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?NOṀ2
- Will the United States Federal Government freeze bank accounts related to the upcoming Washington, D.C. trucker protester similar to how it happened in Canada this year?NOṀ0
5%
10%
20%
- Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?NOṀ200
- Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?NOṀ10
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will I be part of a team that launches a competitor to Manifold by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will I be part of a team that launches a competitor to Manifold by the end of 2023?YESṀ987
- Will the value of the Freightos Baltic Index: Global Container Freight Index for December 2, 2022 be less than $2,500?NOṀ100
80%
90%
- Will I be part of a team that launches a competitor to Manifold by the end of 2023?YESṀ2,000
- Will Joe Biden (write-in) win a majority of the vote in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?YESṀ1,000
- Will my Mathematics eBook, "Probability for Lemurs" have a total of more than 100 readers by the end of April, 2022?YESṀ599
95%
97%
99%
- Will We Don't Talk About Bruno from Encanto still be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 on the week starting February 13th?YESṀ1,000
- Will User alexlyzhov Solicitation of $10 Crypto Result in Accusations of Fraud or Be Resolved with No Outcome?YESṀ9
- Resolves YES. If seen in an ad, please bet M$10 on YES with the quickbet arrow. Otherwise please bet a different amount.YESṀ1