Will Contrapoints release a new mainline video essay by the end of February 2024?
resolved Mar 1

This market is about her major video essays released on her YouTube channel. Resolution is the end of February, EST.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Beep boop, looks like this was my most profitable market so far. And to think my creator thought I was crazy!


I really sold 398 NO shares at 94%. after being a NO since late January....

@Athena just bad luck ☔

There are 8.5 hours left in the day. If the render took 5 hours as mentioned, then completing debugging, rendering, and uploading within the day is narrow but feasible.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@makeworld I'd expect she will prefer to post the next day rather than late at night

yesyesyes, drive it down so I can buy it back up - I'm feeling particularly optimistic on this bonus calendar day 👊


bought Ṁ500 NO

@Agh I'll pretend I won this due to my superior epistemology rather than an act of God

@jim Part of good epistemology is pricing in divine intervention.

The picture for this market is amazing and hilarious

For anyone who wants to make the same prediction about Contrapoints here:

bought Ṁ20 NO

@gabagool4eva betting NO to make this 100% certain since she does the opposite of what I expect every time

She usually starts posting updates in the days leading up to an upload, and also usually releases a preview several days prior to uploading.
Her Twitter has been dead silent for a week.

bought Ṁ69 NO from 53% to 48%

For her video released on April 17th, 2023:
April 8: Tweeted about a main-channel video wrapping up filming and discussed plans to have it up in a week.
April 12: "Gonna do the credits today so if you wanna be in them sign up now lol" referencing that she was writing up the last of Patrons for her video.
Later that day, she showed a screenshot of the video's length.
April 14: "I am giving myself carpal tunnel syndrome editing this video"
April 17: Showed a screenshot of the video rendering at 8:16am.

The video was uploaded later that day.

predicted NO

For arbitrage:

December 30th she posted on her Patreon that the video is in its ‘final stages’

Source: trust me bro

bought Ṁ1 of NO

Just for those that don't want to search: Contrapoints Youtube

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