The Russian army seems to have a manpower problem (again). The mobilization law is still in force, reports suggest that there are not enough volunteers, but, after the unpopularity of last September's mass mobilization, the authorities are hesitant to conduct another wave - especially before the presidential elections which are to take place on March 17, 2024.
This market resolves yes if there is a consensus by independent/Western media about a mass mobilization. The mobilization has to start before March 17, but I will only resolve at the end of March so that reports of a possible mobilization have time to surface.
UPD. Neither volunteers nor conscripts count for the purposes of this market's resolutions.
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@roma I also assume that didn't happen. But I'm still going to wait until the end of the month to allow for possible reports to the contrary to surface, as per the description.
I bet there won't be a way to resolve it to yes either because no new wave or no clear evidence before the end of March.
But they plan to recruit new people:
@Justguesser I think that reports of a mass mobilization would appear within a week or two more or less by definition; there just seems no way to hide tens of thousands mobilizations...
@mxxun No; as you write, conscripts are taken in regularly (and are not supposed to be sent into the fight). Neither do volunteers count.