Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before July 1, 2023? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.
UPD: See also the comments from the sister market for some resolution examples.
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@PedeJo Good question. I think I'll wait a day or two - the question was about significant changes, and those should be apparent relatively quickly.
@CromlynGames I don't think it changes the frontline in itself. As for the effects on the campaign - we shall see.