Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in the first half of 2023?

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Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before July 1, 2023? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.

Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).

The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.

UPD: See also the comments from the sister market for some resolution examples.

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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Wars

#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

#🇷🇺 Russia

#Ukraine

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predictedYES

Well, unless Ukrainian troops drive into Tokmak by the end of today, it seems pretty much impossible for this to resolve yes. Unlucky.

@PS do you consider anything thus far to be significant?

@MarcusAbramovitch No.

predictedYES

Will this market resolve immediately on July 1st or will there be some waiting period until we have a complete picture of what the front line actually looked like?

@PedeJo Good question. I think I'll wait a day or two - the question was about significant changes, and those should be apparent relatively quickly.

predictedYES

where does the dam flooding come under this?

@CromlynGames I don't think it changes the frontline in itself. As for the effects on the campaign - we shall see.

predictedNO

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