Will Putin announce a 2024 presidency bid in 2023?
Dec 31

The Russian presidential elections are due to be held in March 2024. His spokesman stated in November that Putin has not yet decided whether he would run; however, the campaigns being what they are, he often announces his candidacy at the last moment. However, it is still widely expected that he has to announce at least three months in advance, that is, by the end of 2023.

This market resolves yes if, at any point during the year, Putin or his spokespeople announce that he is going to run, even if they don't submit the paperwork or reverse the decision later. I will resolve N/A if the 2024 elections are called off or posponed to May 2024 or later.

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elephantum avatar
Andrey Tatarinovbought Ṁ50 of YES

Previously I voted NO because I did not understand timings.

Elections are due in mid March 2024, and elections should be announced no less than 90 days before the date, i.e. in the end of 2023.

Russian Government needs to keep the appearance of stability, they will try to keep the timings intact. And as was said by @42irrationalist not running is the end for Putin.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistbought Ṁ500 of YES

Not running is suicidal for him. Unless he is dead or seriously incapacitated, he is highly likely running.