2024, more volatility?…Will the average of all daily VIX (CBOE) closes be higher in 2024 vs 2023?
2024, more volatility?…Will the average of all daily VIX (CBOE) closes be higher in 2024 vs 2023?
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110Ṁ22resolved Jan 2
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Simple average...Take the widely circulated regular trading session closing VIX price (to two decimals) of each CBOE trading day, M-F, excluding CBOE holidays, add them up, and divide by that number of trading days, using data from CBOE: https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/
Specifically, their data dump, if available: https://cdn.cboe.com/api/global/us_indices/daily_prices/VIX_History.csv
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No. The average daily close of the VIX was about 1.3 percentage points lower in 2024 vs 2023.
2023 16.85%
2024 15.55%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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