This market focuses on whether the government of China will gain sovereign control over the entire island of Taiwan. The resolution date will shift based on market odds: it will move closer as the odds increase, and further away as the odds decrease. Initially, with 50% odds, the resolution date is set 50 years in the future. If the odds rise to 60%, the resolution date changes to 40 years in the future. Conversely, if the odds drop to 40%, the resolution date moves to 60 years in the future. Each change of 1% in odds adjusts the resolution date accordingly by one year. The market will resolve to YES when it trades at 99% and the resolution date one year ahead is reached. It will resolve to NO when it trades at 1% and the resolution date 98 years ahead is reached.
@JoshuaWilkes I came to. the conclusion, that the whole approach I have experimented with my markets makes no sense.
@JoshuaWilkes You can try. But if that is not backed by real events, you will create the opportunity for others to buy NO very cheaply and make huge gains. I bet you would run out of cash before resolution...
@OurWorldIntheFuture So how does it resolve YES?
It can't fall below 99% for the entire year? Or it has to be above 99% exactly one year later?