https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/politics/special-counsel-trump-jack-smith/index.html
Special counsel goes directly to Supreme Court to resolve whether Trump has immunity from prosecution. Supreme Court has agreed to weigh in on this argument.
The question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority of the ruling or not.
RESOLVE YES -- If his opinion is in the majority column.
RESOLVE NO -- If he is in the minority opinion.
Supreme Court justices can issue different opinions even when they are ruling the same way. Even if Clarence Thomas has a different reasoning than others, but rules with the majority, this resolves to yes.
Recusal will result in an N/A
Also, I am not saying which way the SCOTUS majority will rule. The main question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority -- either for Trump or against Trump.
Resolved after the supreme court issues its decision in this matter.
To maintain the predictive nature of this market, I intend to close this market for all new Trading approximately one week after the SCOTUS finishes hearing the arguments for this case. So please feel to trade based on the proceedings in the front of the SCOTUS during the hearing. But I don't want this market to latch to 0.1% or 99.99% by letting trading go on till the ruling is made public.
Related questions
@Orca But all the pundits are saying he will never recuse himself from any case and all indications are that is true
@Orca Yeah I sincerely doubt he will. The man has never done something like that in his life, seems unlikely he would start now!
@PBlake142 If I create a market on this specific question (Will he recuse himself in any SCOTUS Case) -- It will trend straight to 0% in no time and stay stuck there ๐
@PBlake142 If create a question on this specific topic (Will he ever recuse himself), it will drop straight to 0% and stay stuck there!! ๐คฃ