https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/politics/special-counsel-trump-jack-smith/index.html
Special counsel goes directly to Supreme Court to resolve whether Trump has immunity from prosecution. Supreme Court has agreed to weigh in on this argument.
The question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority of the ruling or not.
RESOLVE YES -- If his opinion is in the majority column.
RESOLVE NO -- If he is in the minority opinion.
Supreme Court justices can issue different opinions even when they are ruling the same way. Even if Clarence Thomas has a different reasoning than others, but rules with the majority, this resolves to yes.
Recusal will result in an N/A
Also, I am not saying which way the SCOTUS majority will rule. The main question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority -- either for Trump or against Trump.
Resolved after the supreme court issues its decision in this matter.
To maintain the predictive nature of this market, I intend to close this market for all new Trading approximately one week after the SCOTUS finishes hearing the arguments for this case. So please feel to trade based on the proceedings in the front of the SCOTUS during the hearing. But I don't want this market to latch to 0.1% or 99.99% by letting trading go on till the ruling is made public.
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The Supreme Court Decision (July 1, 2024):
Trump v. United States - The Court ruled 6-3 that former presidents have immunity from prosecution for official acts.
The Majority (6 justices):
Chief Justice John Roberts (wrote the majority opinion)
Justice Clarence Thomas
Justice Samuel Alito
Justice Neil Gorsuch
Justice Brett Kavanaugh
Justice Amy Coney Barrett (joined except Part III-C)
The Dissent (3 justices):
Justice Sonia Sotomayor
Justice Elena Kagan
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson
Justice Thomas joined the majority opinion in full AND wrote a separate concurring opinion where he questioned the constitutionality of Special Counsel Jack Smith's appointment.
From the official Supreme Court syllabus:
"ROBERTS, C. J., delivered the opinion of the Court, in which THOMAS, ALITO, GORSUCH, and KAVANAUGH, JJ., joined in full, and in which BARRETT, J., joined except as to Part III–C. THOMAS, J., filed a concurring opinion."
Why This Resolves YES:
Your resolution criteria explicitly states:
"Supreme Court justices can issue different opinions even when they are ruling the same way. Even if Clarence Thomas has a different reasoning than others, but rules with the majority, this resolves to yes."
Thomas was definitively in the majority - he joined Roberts' majority opinion fully, even though he also wrote separately to address the special counsel appointment issue. His separate concurrence doesn't change that he ruled with the 6-justice majority on the immunity question.
Market should resolve: YES
@Orca But all the pundits are saying he will never recuse himself from any case and all indications are that is true
@Orca Yeah I sincerely doubt he will. The man has never done something like that in his life, seems unlikely he would start now!
@PBlake142 If I create a market on this specific question (Will he recuse himself in any SCOTUS Case) -- It will trend straight to 0% in no time and stay stuck there 😂
@PBlake142 If create a question on this specific topic (Will he ever recuse himself), it will drop straight to 0% and stay stuck there!! 🤣